3M Open Picks: 4 Golf Matchups To Bet This Week
Andy Lyons/Getty Images. Pictured: Paul Casey
- Our staff breaks down their 3M Open picks ahead of Thursday's first round.
- Find their four favorite golf matchups to bet, featuring Dustin Johnson over Brooks Koepka.
You’re going to have to get creative with your bets for a tournament like the 3M Open. The field isn’t loaded with superstars, the course should play pretty easy and there are a lot of golfers down the board that plenty of golfer fans won’t be familiar with.
Not everybody can find the joy and more importantly, the value, in a matchup between Charley Hoffman and Jhonattan Vegas, but we sure can.
Here are our favorite matchup bets for this week’s 3M Open:
Matthew Wolff (-110) over Bubba Watson
The defending champion should be feeling some good vibes in his return to TPC Twin Cities, which just happens to intersect with him regaining some form, as he finished T-22 last week and runner-up two weeks before that.
This is as much of a Wolff play, though, as a Bubba fade. I admittedly usually only like Bubba at three tourneys each year — and no, this is not one of ‘em. With no top-30 finishes in his past five starts (and three MCs during that span), it’s tough to think he’ll turn it all around this week.
Paul Casey (+115) over Tommy Fleetwood
Casey is coming off a missed cut last week, but it was due in large part to an 8 he took on a par 3 that still only left him one shot shy of making it to the weekend. He played the other 35 holes at 1-under and looked fairly solid the first two days.
Fleetwood hasn’t played competitively since the restart, so we don’t know where his game is at, so I’ll take the plus-number on Casey and hope that Fleetwood doesn’t show up to this lower-tier event completely dialed in.
Odds via the Westgate SuperBook.
Jhonattan Vegas (-120) over Charley Hoffman
I wrote in my outrights section why I loved Vegas, but I’ll summarize it again here: I think for this course, TPC Twin Cities, strong driving — both accuracy plus distance — will be critical to contend. And Vegas is a great example of that type of golfer.
Hoffman, though, ranks 185th in Total Driving this season, and it’s not really a fluke; he finished 162nd in that stat a season ago. He’s coming off a fine outing at the Workday two weeks ago, but he did almost all of his damage with his short game and irons.
Vegas will have the big edge with the big stick this week, and I think that’ll make a huge difference.
Dustin Johnson (-129) over Brooks Koepka
A gambler has to have a short-term memory to post money on DJ, who had two rounds of 80 to miss the cut at The Memorial.
Despite his terrible performance last week, Johnson is still fresh off a victory at TPC River Highlands, a course similar in nature to TPC Twin Cities. DJ also has top-10 finishes at comparable courses such as Innisbrook and Plantation.
Brooks, who is still battling a knee injury, has not been accurate off the box in recent events. Koepka ranks 144th in ball-striking this season and has fallen from 56th to 93rd in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over the past couple of weeks.