Sanderson Farms First Round Leader Picks: Bet Tom Hoge, Sam Ryder

The PGA Tour is back with the second event of the FedExCup Fall — the Sanderson Farms Championship in Jackson, Mississippi.

With four par-5s at the Country Club of Jackson, along with nearly 35% of approach shots historically coming from 100-150 yards, I’ll be targeting players who can make birdies in bunches while also dialing in their short irons and wedges.

Find my Sanderson Farms Championship first-round leader picks and analysis below.

Sanderson Farms FRL Picks

Sam Ryder +6000 (FanDuel)

Sam Ryder enters the Sanderson Farms Championship on a heater with his irons. Per Datagolf, he has gained over 1.2 strokes on approach per round in each of his past four tournaments. He's also finished in the top 38 all four times.

Per my cohost on the Links + Locks Podcast, Spencer Aguiar, Ryder ranks third in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the past 24 rounds. Aguiar also has Ryder ranked fifth in this field in Weighted Proximity, so Ryder should be set up for success in Jackson.

Ryder should thrive on these pure Bermudagrass surfaces as he is 12th on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting. He's also the fourth-best putter by strokes gained in this field.

While Ryder’s par-5 scoring numbers aren’t the best, he is an elite scorer on par-3s and par-4s as he ranks among the top 33 on Tour in Par-3 and Par-4 Scoring Averagel, along with Par-3 and Par-4 Birdie or Better Percentage. Overall, Ryder ranks 13th on Tour (eighth in this field) in Birdie or Better Percentage (34.1%).

With his hot irons, strong putting and propensity to make birdies in bunches, Ryder presents value to hold the first-round lead at +6000 on FanDuel, and I’d bet him down to +5000.

Tom Hoge +6500 (FanDuel)

While the seven FedExFall events present an opportunity for players outside of the top 50 in the FedExCup Points List to solidify their PGA Tour cards for next season and gain entry into the first few 2024 Signature Events, golfers inside the top 50 have nothing to gain from playing (besides prize money and pride).

Tom Hoge finished 46th in the FedExCup Standings, so him playing in this event tells me he believes this is a strong course fit for his game and that he might be able to win.

Hoge hasn’t played on Tour since the BMW Championship, but in his last start on the DP World Tour at the BMW PGA Championship (which featured a strong field, including all 12 Team Europe Ryder Cup competitors), Hoge finished T14.

Hoge should thrive with his irons this week as he leads this field in both Weighted Proximity and Proximity from 100-150 yards.

Like Ryder, Hoge also ranks among the top 33 on Tour in Par-3 and Par-4 Scoring Average, along with Par-3 and Par-4 Birdie or Better Percentage. Unlike Ryder, Hoge ranks above average on Tour in Par-5 Birdie or Better Percentage (70th) and Par-5 Scoring Average (80) as he ranks in the top third of this field in both Par-5 statistics.

This has been Hoge’s best season as a professional with his putter, and he ranks 12th for SG: Total Fast Bermuda, so he should have a good chance of cashing in on his strong approach play. He has thrived on easy courses — like this one — throughout his career, and per Aguiar’s Model, Hoge leads this field in SG: Easy Scoring.

Overall, Hoge profiles as the best approach player in this field. He’s also coming off of a strong DP World Tour performance and should thrive on these pure Bermudagrass greens. I love Hoge at +6500 (and in the outright market at +5500 as well) and would bet him for first-round leader down to +4000.