The Philadelphia Phillies host the Atlanta Braves on May 29, 2025. First pitch for Game 1 of the doubleheader at Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSSO.
The 35-19 Phillies are -155 moneyline favorites for Game 1, while the 25-28 Braves are +125 underdogs. Philly is also a -1.5 run-line favorite at +135. The total is set at 8.5, +100 to the Over and -120 to the Under.
Read our Braves vs Phillies prediction and MLB player prop picks for Game 1 of Thursday's doubleheader below.
Braves vs Phillies Prediction & Pick
Braves vs Phillies Picks:
My best bets for the Braves vs. Phillies Game 1 are on Atlanta to win the match and Matt Olson's Home Run prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Braves vs Phillies Odds, Run Line, Total for Game 1
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 8.5 -100o / -120u | +125 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 8.5 -100o / -120u | -155 |
Braves vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) | Stat | LHP Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | W-L | 4-1 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 3.67 / 5.60 | ERA / xERA | 3.17 / 3.13 |
| 3.55 / 4.08 | FIP / xFIP | 3.44 / 2.89 |
| 1.42 | WHIP | 1.26 |
| 11.6% | K-BB% | 19.6% |
| 35.6% | GB% | 56.7% |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 113 |
| 94 | Location+ | 93 |
How To Make Braves vs Phillies Picks for Game 1
Why The Braves Can Win: Atlanta Braves Moneyline Pick
By Tanner McGrath & Evan Abrams
Game 1 of today’s Braves vs Phillies doubleheader activated one of Evan Abrams’ PRO MLB betting systems: Small Contrarian Dogs vs. Winning Teams.
This system targets MLB underdogs between +100 and +165 who are earning less than 30% of the moneyline tickets against winning teams.
The Braves fit our system for Game 1.
I’m not thrilled to be betting against Phillies starting pitcher Cristopher Sanchez, who is on pace for a career-best season behind an improved sinker (113 Stuff+) and swing-and-miss stuff (28.3% strikeout rate, 12.8% swinging-strike rate).
That said, the Braves continue to heat up at the plate (110 wRC+ over the past two weeks) and have seen Sanchez decently well in the past (.371 xwOBA across 73 lifetime plate appearances from current Atlanta hitters). Meanwhile, the Phillies are potentially without superstar Bryce Harper on Thursday.
I have some concerns about potential regression for Braves starting pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver (3.67 ERA, 5.60 xERA) and the Atlanta bullpen (3.49 ERA, 4.90 xFIP over the past two weeks).
That said, this betting system has generated a 9% return on investment (ROI) since 2005 and is on a 21-8 run this season. I’m tailing again.
Pick: Braves ML (+125, BetMGM)
Atlanta Braves Player Prop Pick: Matt Olson Homer
Olson has faced Cristopher Sánchez 12 times in his career and tallied four hits, two of which left the yard.
We are aware of the power that Olson is capable of unleashing. He ranks in the 97th percentile or better among qualified MLB hitters in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate — when he makes contact, he destroys the ball.
The three pitches that Olson struggles with (curveball, cutter, slurve), Sánchez does not have in his arsenal.
I could see Olson unlocking his power against a divisional rival.
Pick: Matt Olson Over 0.5 Home Runs (+525, bet365)
Moneyline
We're on the Braves as small road 'dogs for Game 1 of the doubleheader.
Run Line (Spread)
We have no picks on the run line.
Over/Under
We like the Over in this NL East battle.
Braves vs Phillies Betting Trends
Braves vs Phillies starts at 1:05 p.m. EDT on Thursday, live from Citizens Bank Park. The game will be broadcast on FDSSO.
