The Atlanta Braves host the Cleveland Guardians on April 11, 2026. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on BravesVsn.
The Braves are favored by -120 on the moneyline and by +1.5 on the run line. The Guardians are +100 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Guardians vs Braves prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Guardians vs Braves Prediction
- Guardians vs Braves Pick: Guardians F5 Moneyline (-105)
My Guardians vs Braves best bet is on Cleveland to be on top after the first five innings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Braves Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 8 -115o / -105u | +100 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8 -115o / -105u | -120 |
- Guardians vs Braves spread: Guardians -1.5 (+165), Braves +1.5 (-200)
- Guardians vs Braves over/under: 8 (-115o / -105u)
- Guardians vs Braves moneyline: Guardians +100, Braves -120
Guardians vs Braves Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Parker Messick (CLE) | Stat | LHP Martin Perez (ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | W-L | 0-0 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 0.82 / 2.96 | ERA / xERA | 3.86 / 4.22 |
| 3.15 / 2.78 | FIP / xFIP | 2.61 / 3.98 |
| 0.91 | WHIP | 0.86 |
| 20.0 | K-BB% | 8.8 |
| 52.0 | GB% | 29.6 |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 87 |
| 101 | Location+ | 107 |
Guardians vs Braves Preview
In seven big league starts last year, Parker Messick authored an impressive 3.43 SIERA/3.07 xERA, and in two more starts this season, he has been even better (2.95 SIERA/.276 wOBA).
The Guardians SP shut out the Dodgers in his opening start. Six innings without a walk and five strikeouts, and then threw five innings of two-hit, one-run ball against the Cubs with six Ks.
Despite the colder temperatures in Cleveland, his velocity was actually up half a mph from last year. Overall, he has allowed just a single barrel and 38 HardHit%, while keeping 52% of his contact on the ground.
Action PRO projects Messick for 4.7 strikeouts this evening.
The Braves had just a 99 wRC+ both at home and against southpaws last year. This year’s standard lineup against LHP has Mauricio Dubon’s .119 ISO (vs LHP) since last season, batting sixth with none of the projected nine reaching a .200 ISO.
Opposing Messick will be the veteran southpaw Martin Perez, who last reached a double-digit K-BB% in 2022 and has allowed more line drives (nine) than ground balls (eight) this year.
He’s had a SIERA below four and a half once since 2016 and an xERA above 4.80 for three consecutive seasons.
Problematically, the Cleveland offense had just an 81 wRC+ against LHP last year. The projected lineup is only a bit higher than last season at 92.
However, Chase DeLauter has given a jolt to this lineup with a 188 wRC+ overall through Thursday’s games. He is joined by Angel Martinez and Rhys Hoskins above 150 this year.
Both teams project an equally strong defensive lineup above 25 FRV last season, but the Guardians may have a slight base-running edge (4 BRR v -3 for projected lineups).
I’ll opt to avoid an Atlanta pen with the best estimators in baseball so far and side with an impressive young pitcher at -105 (Bet 365) to outduel the veteran hanger-on for five innings.
Pick: Guardians F5 Moneyline (-105, BetMGM)
