The Atlanta Braves (29-38) host the Colorado Rockies (13-55) on Friday, June 13, 2025. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on COLR and FDSNSO.
Read our Rockies vs Braves prediction and MLB pick below.
My Rockies vs Braves Prediction
- Rockies vs Braves Picks: Under 9 (-115, BetMGM)
My Rockies vs Braves best bet is on the under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rockies vs Braves Odds
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -135 | 9 -105o / -115u | +240 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 +115 | 9 -105o / -115u | -300 |
Rockies vs Braves Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP German Marquez (COL) | Stat | RHP Bryce Elder (RHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-8 | W-L | 2-3 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 7.00/5.08 | ERA / xERA | 4.08/4.22 |
| 4.46/4.87 | FIP / xFIP | 4.30/3.47 |
| 1.68 | WHIP | 1.17 |
| 6.8% | K-BB% | 14.2% |
| 41.2% | GB% | 53% |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 91 |
| 95 | Location+ | 102 |
Rockies vs Braves Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Braves enter Friday’s series opener against the Rockies as steep -300 favorites, and it’s hard to argue with the line. Atlanta just handled the Brewers 6-2, while Colorado — despite a 8-7 win over the Giants on Thursday — is buried at the bottom of the standings with a league-worst 13-55 record.
But instead of trying to extract value from the moneyline or trust baseball’s worst team to pull off a surprise, the sharper play lies with the total.
This prediction aligns with Evan Abrams’ “Public Fades Humidity = Unders” system, which has quietly produced long-term value in MLB totals betting.
The model identifies regular-season games played in elevated humidity conditions (typically between 45% and 95%) combined with moderate temperatures and no significant wind.
While many casual bettors assume humidity equals more offense, the data shows the opposite in these situations, especially when the home team — like the Braves — is trending toward lower-scoring games.
Atlanta’s recent five-game over rate sits below 40%, indicating they’re not swinging the bats with much rhythm.
Meanwhile, the market has begun to reflect sharp sentiment: The total has ticked down slightly since open, and only a modest share of bets are landing on the over.
With no need to trust the Rockies to deliver a second straight win, and no value in backing Atlanta at such a steep price, the under is the cleaner, data-supported angle.
The pick is under 9.
Pick: Under 9 (-115, BetMGM)
