The Washington Nationals host the Colorado Rockies on August 25, 2026. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on COLR.
The Nationals are favored by -116 on the moneyline and by +1.5 on the run line. The Rockies are -102 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Rockies vs Nationals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Rockies vs Nationals Prediction
- Rockies vs Nationals Pick: Rockies ML (play to -130)
My Rockies vs Nationals best bet is Rockies ML (play to -130). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rockies vs Nationals Odds
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 9.5 -102o / -120u | -102 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -194 | 9.5 -102o / -120u | -116 |
- Rockies vs Nationals moneyline: Rockies -102, Nationals -116
- Rockies vs Nationals over/under: 9.5 (-102o / -120u)
- Rockies vs Nationals spread: Rockies -1.5 (+160), Nationals +1.5 (-194)
Rockies vs Nationals Probable Pitchers
| Gabriel Hughes (RHP, COL) | Stat | Jake Irvin (RHP, WSH) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | W-L | 2-8 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 6.54 / 3.47 | ERA / xERA | 5.82 / 5.37 |
| 3.86 / 4.30 | FIP / xFIP | 5.06 / 4.64 |
| 10.8% | K-BB% | 12.7% |
| 41.1% | GB% | 36.8% |
| .302 | BABIP | .279 |
| 85 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 107 | Location+ | 99 |
Rockies vs Nationals MLB Betting Preview
Rockies vs Nationals Pick, Betting Analysis
Pitching in Colorado isn't for the faint of heart, and rookie right-hander Gabriel Hughes is learning his lesson the hard way.
You won't leave impressed by Hughes just by looking at his ERA, a robust 6.54. Under the hood, Hughes boasts a 3.47 xERA and 3.86 FIP, which indicates he's pitching much better than his ERA says.
In the minors this year, Hughes punched out over 11 batters per nine innings, but he's punching out just 7.65 at the MLB level.
Even with the dip in strikeouts, Hughes has the tools to thrive at this level. The 6-4 righty is masterful at generating weak contact, ranking in the 94th percentile in hard-hit rate and the 91st in average exit velocity. He doesn't throw hard, but his elite extension and high arm angle make his 92 mph four-seamer play up.
The last five weeks have been quite rough for the Rockies' offense, as over their past 31 games, they have an 82 wRC+ (27th). Some of their more valuable bats, such as Mickey Moniak, Jake McCarthy, and TJ Rumfield, started to slump, and power-hitting catcher Hunter Goodman just returned from an IL stint.
I wouldn't call this Rockies offense a world beater even at full strength, but they're better than 27th with Goodman back.
The Nationals' pitching staff has been a total mess on all fronts this year.
Whether it's the rotation or the constant shuffling of names in the pen, nothing is working. That includes Jake Irvin, who has a 5.82 ERA with a 5.37 xERA and 5.06 FIP in 16 starts.
In four of Irvin's past five outings, he gave up 4+ earned runs, a trend he'll look to snap against the Rockies.
Notably, Irvin is getting hit very hard, ranking in the 4th percentile in barrel rate and 6th percentile in hard-hit rate. Thus, Irvin has a 1.63 HR/9 because when fly ball pitchers get hit hard, the ball tends to leave the yard.
It's not a recent thing for Irvin to be one of the worst pitchers in the league; it was true in his 33 starts last year, too. Irvin has a 49-game sample with an ERA well over 5.00 — and the Nats continue to trot him out.
Prior to James Wood getting hurt and Luis Garcia getting flipped to the Yankees, the Nationals boasted one of the top offenses in the league. However, they rank 24th in wRC+ since dealing Garcia, whose bat-to-ball skills and power helped tremendously next to Wood and CJ Abrams.
Now, Abrams is getting less hittable pitches as the clear number one option, and his wRC+ is down to 77 since the deadline with a 32% strikeout rate. Only three hitters in that span have a wRC+ above 100 (Keibert Ruiz, Andres Chapparo, and Jacob Young).
This lineup still has weapons, but it basically needs to average 4-5 runs a game to have a chance most nights due to their pitching being so poor. That isn't happening of late, and it's led to them dropping 11 of 13 games.
The Rockies are the play here for me. Hughes has a path to putting together a strong start if his positive regression starts to come around.
That path feels less likely for Irvin, and I want no business with the Nationals' bullpen in a close game.
Pick: Rockies ML (play to -130)
