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Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Odds, Pick & Preview: Back Merrill Kelly and Arizona to Complete the Sweep (Sunday, May 22)

Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Odds, Pick & Preview: Back Merrill Kelly and Arizona to Complete the Sweep (Sunday, May 22) article feature image
Credit:

Via Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images. Pictured: Merrill Kelly #29 of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

  • The Cubs are home favorites on Sunday as they look to avoid a sweep against the Diamondbacks.
  • With Merrill Kelly on the mound for the Snakes, is there value on the road underdog?
  • Jules Posner breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Odds

Diamondbacks Odds +100
Cubs Odds -120
Over/Under 7.5
Time 2:20 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

After walking a tightrope to an extra innings victory on Saturday, the Arizona Diamondbacks look to complete the four-game sweep against the Chicago Cubs Sunday afternoon.

Merrill Kelly will take the mound to try to clinch the Diamondbacks’ fourth win in a row. On the other hand, Wade Miley will take the ball for the Cubs in hopes of getting them back in the win column.

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Kelly Looking to Bounce Back for the Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks stormed back from a 4-0 deficit Sunday afternoon to win 7-6 in extras, but they were shut down by Justin Steele through five innings.

Once again, the Diamondbacks will be facing a left-handed starter on the road. The overall numbers in May still have them seventh in MLB in team wRC+ against LHP on the road. Surprisingly, the majority of their offense came against a Cubs bullpen that has been a top-10 unit in terms of FIP and had the second best ERA in MLB in May.

Merrill Kelly has been anchoring the Diamondbacks’ revitalized starting rotation, but after getting shredded by the Dodgers on the road in his last start, his road numbers took a considerable hit.

Before that start he had a 0.69 ERA and a 2.17 FIP in 13 road innings. The Dodgers touched him up for eight runs in two innings. So was that an outlier or regression? Or both?

Oh. I guess I’m the expert, so my answer is outlier.


Cubs Hope to Avoid the Sweep

After a demoralizing loss at home on Saturday, the Cubs look to salvage the final game of the four-game series.

Wade Miley takes the hill for the Cubs and he has yet to allow a run in seven home innings, all of which came in his first home start of the season. Also, that start was against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are 29th in MLB in team wRC+ on the road against LHP in May.

Speaking of offense, even though the Cubs offense has put up six runs in their last two defeats, they are also 29th in team wRC+ against RHP at home this month. They did get to Madison Bumgarner early on Saturday but went silent until extra innings.

Diamondbacks-Cubs Pick

Although the last two games have been relatively high scoring, it’s really hard to get a read on this series. The Diamondbacks got to a solid Cubs bullpen Saturday, they roughed up Kyle Hendricks on Friday, and they struggled to get anything going against Marcus Stroman on Thursday.

Using Justin Steele and Stroman as the litmus test and the Diamondbacks’ overall offensive output on the road this month, it would seem they are in a good position to complete this four-game sweep Sunday.

Additionally, they’re listed as the underdogs again, and a team at plus-money with a three-game win streak seems like a great value. Look for Kelly to get back on track Sunday and take the Diamondbacks moneyline to the -110 threshold.

Pick: Diamondbacks ML +100

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