Dodgers vs Rangers MLB Odds, Pick, Prediction | Bet Against Tony Gonsolin

Dodgers vs Rangers MLB Odds, Pick, Prediction | Bet Against Tony Gonsolin article feature image

Via Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Jung #6 of the Texas Rangers bats against the Washington Nationals during the fifth inning at Nationals Park on July 07, 2023 in Washington, DC.

Dodgers vs. Rangers Odds

Friday, July 21
8:05 p.m. ET
Dodgers Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-108 / -112
Rangers Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-108 / -112
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

An exciting three-game interleague set between two division leaders begins on Friday as the Texas Rangers host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Globe Life Field.

Texas was a slight underdog, but is now the betting favorite on the moneyline in the series opener when Tony Gonsolin (3.72 ERA, 72 2/3 IP) faces former Dodger Andrew Heaney (4.43 ERA, 91 1/3 IP).

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Los Angeles Dodgers

Tony Gonsolin overachieved his xERA by over a full run last season with a 3.12 ERA, and he is again overperforming by over a full run this season with a 3.72 ERA and a 4.88 xERA.

Even when Gonsolin was producing elite numbers last season, his process never seemed as dominant, and early on this season he was making the case that his game was simply better than most metrics indicated yet again.

His luck seems to be regressing, as Gonsolin has pitched to a 6.19 ERA in 36 2/3 innings since the start of June with a 1.25 WHIP during that span. His xFIP has increased during that stretch to 5.02, and his Strikeout Rate has remained consistently below 20%.

Those numbers don't suggest any kind of above-average pitching, and neither does his 96 Stuff+ Rating nor his 97 Location+ Rating.

Offensively, the Dodgers enter this series in the midst of some strong play. They have hit to a wRC+ of 119 over the last 30 days, with a second-best BB/K Rate of 0.49. They have hit to a wRC+ of 111 against left-handed pitching this season.

Texas Rangers

The Rangers' hitters have remained dominant over the last 30 days as they boast the second-highest wRC+ in the league over that span at 125. Their 135 wRC+ at Globe Life Park is by a wide margin the top mark in baseball.

Texas' 119 wRC+ against right-handed pitching is also the top mark in the league.

The Rangers could be without one key player offensively, as Adolis Garcia's .511 SLG and .841 OPS may be out of the lineup due to an injury. Garcia was struck by a pitch in Wednesday's win over Tampa, but he should be back soon as X-rays came back negative.

Similar to Gonsolin, Andrew Heaney has struggled to a 5.19 ERA over his last seven starts. His 4.50 xFIP this season is markedly better than Gonsolin's, and his Stuff+ rating of 100 and Location+ of 99 are also slightly better marks.

Dodgers vs. Rangers Betting Pick

Tony Gonsolin has struggled over the last month and change, and there are few arguments which suggest he is truly a strong starter at this point in time. He faces a challenge against a stellar Rangers offense, which has been particularly potent at home where Texas is 33-18.

Heaney owns a comparable underlying profile to Gonsolin and is likely to post comparable results from here on out. Given that Texas hitting has been more productive in these splits, I am not seeing what makes the Dodgers a slight favorite in this matchup.

At Thursday night's price of -105,  I believe this is clearly a spot to take the Rangers or pass in terms of sides on this game. Bet the Rangers in this spot at anything better than -110.

Pick: Rangers Moneyline -105 (Play to -110)

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