The Boston Red Sox host the Houston Astros on August 3, 2025. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 11:35 a.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on Roku.
The Astros will look to avoid a sweep in Boston. They enter as -115 favorites for this Sunday morning game.
Find my MLB betting preview and Astros vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Astros vs Red Sox Prediction
- Astros vs Red Sox Picks: Astros ML (play to -140)
My Astros vs Red Sox best bet is on Houston ML. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Astros vs Red Sox Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8.5 +100o / -120u | -115 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8.5 +100o / -120u | -105 |
Astros vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Framber Valdez (HOU) | Stat | RHP Lucas Giolito (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-4 | W-L | 7-2 |
| 3.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 2.62 / 3.45 | ERA / xERA | 3.80 / 5.43 |
| 2.87 / 2.92 | FIP / xFIP | 4.19 / 4.12 |
| 1.11 | WHIP | 1.25 |
| 3.2 | K-BB% | 3.0 |
| 60.3 | GB% | 35% |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 103 | Location+ | 101 |
Sean Paul’s Astros vs Red Sox Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Can You Trust Giolito?
The Red Sox will hand the ball to Lucas Giolito, who tossed a six-inning gem in his last outing in Minnesota.
Giolito has some exciting numbers. On the surface, Giolito’s 3.80 ERA is terrific for a mid-rotation option. However, he has a 5.43 xERA and a 4.19 FIP. That’s a rather large disparity in xERA and FIP, but I think his true talent level rests in the middle.
Why am I worried about Giolito? Well, for one, he’s not striking out batters like he did during his All-Star days. He was a premier strikeout pitcher and now he’s striking out a meager 7.53 batters per nine. Secondly, he’s been a bit lucky based on how hard teams hit him. He ranks in the seventh percentile with a .289 xBA and worse than the 35th percentile in barrel, hard hit rate, and average exit velocity.
Boston's offense has struggled lately. The All-Star break couldn't have come at a worse time for the Red Sox, who won 10 games heading into the Midsummer Classic. In 14 games since the break ended, the Red Sox rank 22nd in MLB with a 91 wRC+.
If you rewind to a similar sample from July 1st to July 18th, they sat third with a 128 wRC+. The only notable difference is that their strikeout rate was 18.7% in Early July, and it has since increased to 25%. Ceddane Rafaela is the other difference. He went from one of the game's most feared hitters, posting a 235 wRC+ and having a 3 wRC+ since the break.
A very early Sunday getaway day game likely means we'll see the worst version of Boston's lineup. Connor Wong likely draws the start over Carlos Narvaez. He'll join Rafaela, who hasn't hit in two weeks, Jarren Duran, who struggles versus lefties and rookie phenom Roman Anthony. Anthony is still figuring out the ropes of hitting lefty pitching in the bigs, posting a sub .700 OPS in over 50 ABs.
That's a fairly large group of Boston's lineup that the numbers indicate won't hit well versus Valdez. I don't see many runs coming the Sox's way if Alex Bregman, Romy Gonzalez and Rob Refsnyder don't hit well. The rest of the lineup just isn't good enough against lefties, and facing Valdez makes it even worse.
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Whole Lot of Grounders
Houston has to feel good handing the ball to its stopper, Framber Valdez, to avoid the sweep.
Valdez is on one of the best stretches of any hurler in MLB. The southpaw allowed fewer than three runs in 13 of his 14 outings since May 7th, and they lost just one of those games. That so happened to be his last outing against the Nationals, where Valdez allowed three hits and punched out 12 in six innings.
Plus, Valdez is a groundball machine, with a dazzling 60.4% groundball rate. That ability to sink the ball and keep the ball on the ground leads to Valdez posting a 2.62 ERA with a 3.45 xERA and 2.87 FIP.
And if the Astros' lineup had more MLB regulars instead of dipping into the Triple-A depth due to injuries, that result may have been different. Now, the Astros are closer to whole with Jeremy Pena back, and Carlos Correa joining the fold to replace the injured Isaac Paredes.
Looking back at any recent numbers from the Astros' offense isn't super relevant due to the extreme difference in their lineups, as I stated above. They had several games with Taylor Trammell batting leadoff and Victor Caratini hitting cleanup. There were some brutal lineups mixed in, but that's a thing of the past.
If you bet on the Astros in the past two days, you're probably frustrated by the number of stranded runners. They had 19 runners on base on Saturday and scored just three runs. On Friday, lost despite out-hitting the Red Sox, 7-6. If runners continue reaching base, it'll eventually lead to positive results. Plus, all the Astros need is three or four runs to feel good with Valdez on the mound and one of the bullpens in the sport backing him up.
Astros vs Red Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis
I like the Astros here. The pitching matchup is way in their direction, and the numbers I touched on speak volumes. Houston rarely loses when Valdez pitches. That won't change in the series finale. Back the Stros and their ace.
Pick: Astros ML (play to -140)
Moneyline
I like the Astros moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
No play.
Over/Under
No play.
