The Cincinnati Reds host the Miami Marlins on August 16, 2026. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CINR.
The Marlins are favored by -124 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Reds are +106 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Marlins vs Reds prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Marlins vs Reds Prediction
- Marlins vs Reds Pick: Under 9 (-108, FanDuel)
My Marlins vs Reds best bet is on the run total under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Reds Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -155 | 9 -111o / -110u | -124 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +125 | 9 -111o / -110u | +106 |
- Marlins vs Reds moneyline: Marlins -124, Reds +106
- Marlins vs Reds over/under: 9 (-111o / -110u)
- Marlins vs Reds spread: Marlins -1.5 (+125), Reds +1.5 (-155)
Marlins vs Reds Probable Pitchers
| RHP Eury Perez (MIA) | Stat | LHP Nick Lodolo (CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-9 | W-L | 3-2 |
| 2.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 3.39/3.63 | ERA / xERA | 4.86/6.17 |
| 3.67/3.86 | FIP / xFIP | 5.44/4.69 |
| 17.8% | K-BB% | 9.4% |
| 38.5% | GB% | 43.6% |
| .259 | BABIP | .301 |
| 116 | Stuff+ | 106 |
| 94 | Location+ | 91 |
Marlins vs Reds MLB Betting Preview
Miami’s bullpen came through in a big way Saturday, tossing 4.1 scoreless frames to secure the win after an up-and-down outing from Ryan Gusto. Right-hander Eury Pérez (6-9, 3.39 ERA) takes the mound for the finale. Pérez has been effective at suppressing hard contact and generating swings-and-misses, but he faces a quick turnaround pitching in a hitter-friendly venue like Great American Ball Park.
Offensively, the Marlins relied on dynamic plays from Jakob Marsee and Joe Mack on Saturday night. However, depth remains a concern—especially following a night-to-day transition where regular starters are candidates for rest days.
The Reds send left-hander Nick Lodolo (3-2, 4.86 ERA) to the bump. Lodolo’s profile presents plenty of swing-and-miss potential, particularly against a Miami lineup that can be prone to strikeouts when facing quality southpaws.
Cincinnati’s offense flashed power on Saturday with back-to-back homers from Ke'Bryan Hayes and Matt McLain, but consistency has been elusive throughout the weekend. With an early 1:40 p.m. ET start following Saturday’s night game, expect manager tweaks to the lineup, potentially leaving some key bats on the bench.
Marlins vs Reds Pick, Betting Analysis
The Bet Labs system "Sunday Unders on Over streak" isolates a specific structural spot in MLB betting. It targets Sunday games featuring a home team coming off 1–2 consecutive Overs with a total set between 8 and 9.5.
This system targets Sunday MLB games where the home team is coming off 1–2 consecutive overs, suggesting recent offensive outperformance or inflated totals. The theory is that on Sundays—often the final game of a series and an early start—teams may rest key hitters, lineups can be inconsistent, and pitchers often perform better against lineups they’ve already seen. With an opening total in the 8 to 9.5 run range, the line is high enough to offer under value when offensive regression is likely. Betting the under in these specific setups has historically yielded a positive ROI.
Taking Unders with moderate totals (8 to 9.5) in Sunday games with home teams on an Over streak. Sunday games usually wrap up the series and are played during the day, usually after a night game. Hitters may be worn out by the end of the week, and, collectively as a league, players tend to take their rest days on Sundays, so there's an added advantage for Unders.
Having played on Saturday night, both teams face a quick turnaround for Sunday’s 1:40 p.m. ET start. Hitters often experience fatigue late in a weekend series, and managers frequently rest everyday starters on Sunday afternoon games.
After an 8-4 outcome on Saturday that comfortably went Over, oddsmakers set an inflated total of 9. This creates value on the Under as the market reacts to recent offense rather than the underlying pitching matchup.
Eury Pérez (3.39 ERA) is capable of controlling the top of Cincinnati's order, while Nick Lodolo's strikeout tools match up well against Miami's aggressive lineup. On the last day of a series, opposing pitchers benefit from recent scouting reports and in-series adjustments.
Pick: Under 9 (-108, FanDuel)
