The Cincinnati Reds host the Miami Marlins on Wednesday, July 9, 2025. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FanDuel Sports Ohio/Florida.
The Marlins took the first two games of this series and will give the rock to Sandy Alcantara tonight against the Reds' Andrew Abbott.
Find our Marlins vs Reds prediction for Wednesday night below.
Marlins vs Reds Prediction
- Marlins vs Reds pick: Under 8.5 (+100, BetMGM)
My Marlins vs Reds best bet is Under 8.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Reds Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | +120 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +154 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -145 |
Marlins vs Reds Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Sandy Alcantara (MIA) | Stat | LHP Andrew Abbott (CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-8 | W-L | 7-1 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.9 |
| 7.01 / 4.95 | ERA / xERA | 2.15 / 3.21 |
| 4.55 / 4.52 | FIP / xFIP | 3.60 / 4.11 |
| 1.44 | WHIP | 1.09 |
| 8.3 | K-BB% | 16.5 |
| 44.6 | GB% | 30.5 |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 98 | Location+ | 102 |
Marlins vs Reds Preview
The Reds are anemic on offense right now, producing only five runs in their last four games.
Sandy Alcantara's numbers this season might suggest he should be the pitcher that finally allows Cincinnati to get going, but he already had a quality start against them on April 23, giving up three runs and five hits across six innings.
Plus, the Reds do not seem capable of hitting anything right now. They are next-to-last this month in wRC+ (46), barely ahead of the Pirates' (29). Cincinnati is hitting .189 as a team in July.
After exploding for 12 runs yesterday, the Marlins should be much less productive today when they face the Reds' Andrew Abbott, since they do a bit worse against left-handed pitchers.
Miami has 96 wRC+ in 2025 but falls to 85 versus LHP. They have a .242 average and an ISO of .119 against southpaws compared to .254 and .137 overall.
The Marlins are also performing poorly in July, with an 80 wRC+, ranking 20th in the majors.
Our Bet Labs recommendation for this match is Under 8.5.
Marlins vs Reds Prediction, Betting Analysis
This MLB first five innings system, titled "Low Total Unders with Line Movement (F5)," is built around early-game environments where oddsmakers and sharp bettors anticipate limited scoring.
The foundation starts with a low closing total — between 3.5 and 6.5 — indicating a strong pitcher’s duel or poor hitting conditions. If the full game total has moved down between half a run and one run from open to close, it signals smart money pushing the market toward the under.
The model further refines this edge by requiring the juice on the under to remain within a sharp range, typically between -149 and -120, avoiding inflated pricing that could distort value.
Games played in modest wind conditions — between 4-9 mph — are included, as they often suppress offense without triggering dramatic public reaction.
By isolating games across the past three seasons and targeting first-half unders in tightly lined, downward-trending markets, this system captures value where the market signals defensive control without overreaction.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+100, BetMGM)
