MLB Best Bets: Friday Picks & Predictions (April 5)
Getty Images. Pictured: Brandon Marsh, Freddy Peralta, Triston Casas, Jose Quintana
MLB Best Bets for Friday includes five bets for four games on Major League Baseball's 13-game slate for April 5.
MLB picks and predictions include expert takes on Mets vs Brewers, Phillies vs Nationals, Mariners vs Brewers and Red Sox vs Angels.
Here are our MLB Best Bets: Friday Picks & Predictions (April 5).
MLB Best Bets: Friday Picks & Predictions (April 5)
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 8:10 p.m. | ||
| 9:38 p.m. | ||
| 6:40 p.m. | ||
| 6:45 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Mets vs. Reds
By Tony Sartori
New York hands the ball to left-hander Jose Quintana on Friday, and he should be a good fade candidate. His first outing of 2024 wasn't terrible, but it certainly wasn't great either as he allowed two runs on six hits in fewer than five innings.
However, we are going to specifically look to fade him in the strikeout department as he only recorded four punchouts in that outing. Failing to record strikeouts was also a massive problem for Quintana in 2023, ranking in the 15th percentile in Whiff% and 18th percentile in K%.
Dating back to last season, the left-hander has recorded five or fewer strikeouts in 14 of his past 16 starts. One of those outings came against Cincinnati, a game win which Quintana only recorded two punchouts through nearly seven innings of work.
Through 40 career plate appearances against Quintana, this current Reds lineup possesses a mere 15 K% and 18 Whiff%.
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By Cody Goggin
Jose Quintana will be making his second start of the season for the New York Mets today as they take on the Cincinnati Reds. The 35-year-old has long been a reliable starter in the league, but he is now on the back-end of his career.
In Quintana’s first start of the season, he went 4 2/3 innings, allowing two runs and striking out four batters. He did allow six hits and two walks, but after stranding 90.9% of his runners against Milwaukee you could argue that Quintana’s overall numbers look better than they should have. This is supported by comparing his 3.86 ERA for the game to his xFIP of 5.04 or FIP of 5.62.
The left-hander will now be traveling to Great American Ball Park, which has the second-highest park factor and the highest park factor for home runs over the last three seasons for right-handed batters.
The Reds rank 10th in runs per game, 9th in wOBA and 15th in wRC+. Most of the Statcast metrics would support this performance as well. The Reds rank second in Hard Hit%, ninth in average exit velocity and 13th in Barrel%.
In 13 starts last season, Quintana eclipsed this number only twice (15.4%) and his strikeout rates haven’t been high for much of his career. This prop was set at 4.5 for his first start of the season and he still went under this total despite having a decent outing.
Combining Quintana’s profile as a pitcher at this stage of his career, the park factors in Cincinnati, and the ability of Cincinnati’s lineup, I love the under on his strikeout prop tonight. The Reds have had issues with strikeouts to this point in the year, but Quintana isn’t the kind of pitcher who can exploit this weakness.
My model projects an average of 4.11 strikeouts for Quintana with 4 being the most likely outcome. This represents a sizable (20%+) edge for me so I would take under 5.5 up to at least -150 on the conservative side.
Pick: Jose Quintana Under 5.5 Strikeouts
Phillies vs. Nationals
By William Boor
Aaron Nola got lit up to the tune of seven runs (six earned) on 11 hits in his first start of the season.
That’s obviously far from ideal, but it came against the Braves, a team expected to finish near the top of the league and compete for a World Series title.
The Nationals, to put it simply, aren’t the Braves.
Nola’s track record, coupled with Friday’s opponent, has me betting on a bounce-back and backing the Phillies.
Nola pitched to a 4.46 ERA and struck out 202 batters over 193 2/3 innings last season. In 2022, he posted a 3.25 ERA and fanned 235 over 205 innings.
Additionally, April was his best month (3.58 ERA) last season. In fact, this same script played out a season ago. After Nola got shelled in his first start, he bounced back with six innings of three-run ball in his second.
Let’s bet on that bounce-back happening again against the Nationals.
Joey Gallo is always a threat to homer, but the Nationals otherwise don’t have a ton of pop and will have to string together hits to generate offense.
Meanwhile, the Phillies seem to be on the verge of a breakout. Bryce Harper homered three times on Tuesday, Trea Turner has hits in four of six games and Kyle Schwarber is riding a five-game hitting streak. There are signs that the top of this order is about to take off.
Philadelphia is a streaky team and the bullpen scares me – which is why I’m not so sure about betting Phillies -1.5 – but at some point, the Phillies are going to go on a run. I’m betting it starts soon.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline
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Mariners vs. Brewers
By D.J. James
Logan Gilbert against Freddy Peralta is the best pitching matchup on Friday night. Gilbert yielded some hard contact in 2023 with an average exit velocity over 90 mph, but otherwise was razor sharp. He has consistently kept runners off of the basepaths via the free pass (sub-5% walk rate in 2023). His strikeout rate was above average, so this led to a 3.69 xERA.
Peralta had one of the more impressive 2023 second halves among starting pitchers with a 2.81 ERA over 73 2/3 innings. He is one of the best strikeout arms in baseball and flies a bit under the radar in doing so.
His strikeout rate was over 30% in 2023, and he maintained a sub-8% walk rate. Pair these with a strong average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, and you might have one of the best pitchers in baseball, let alone on the Brewers.
The key to this matchup will be pitchers who can keep runners off the bases, and these are the pitchers to do that. Milwaukee held a 90 wRC+ off of righties in the second half of 2023, and even though Seattle was well above average, Julio Rodríguez and others look off, having only scored five-plus runs once in the early going.
Both bullpens have enough artillery to throw at these lineups, so this game could be low-scoring. Take it to 7.
Pick: Under 7.5
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Red Sox vs. Angels
By Kenny Ducey
The Angels have several large problems at the moment, but the one I’m paying attention to on Friday is their poor 24.9% strikeout rate, which ranks ninth-worst in the league to this point in the season.
That comes a year after they struck out 24.8% of the time to rank fifth-worst, and while they’ve done well to achieve a solid 10% walk rate those should be hard to come by against Kutter Crawford.
One of the most slept-on arms in the game right now, Crawford took a somewhat unlucky 2023 season if his 3.25 xERA and low .208 xBA were any indicators and came out guns-blazing in spring training with nearly a strikeout per nine over 19 1/3 innings, over which he recorded a 3.72 ERA.
Yes, Crawford did get to face the Oakland A’s in his first start of the season, and surely he won’t strike out 10 per start. With that said, however, with an improving walk rate each year in the bigs and just two walks in his five spring starts, it’s hard to see the Angels doing a ton of damage against a solid strikeout pitcher given their struggles in that area and the reprieve they’ve had via the free pass.
Griffin Canning, meanwhile, did have himself a nice spring in his own right but hasn’t been anywhere close to an effective big-league starter since he debuted in 2019. The Red Sox don’t have the prettiest offensive stats to this point and didn’t enter the season with much hope in that area, but they’ve run into a wealth of ground ball pitchers this year and some big strikeout arms.
Canning grades out as an extreme fly-ball pitcher, and in a rather hitter-friendly park I do think Boston should find a way to get some runs on the board given Canning’s long history of allowing barrels and a high expected slugging percentage.
The key here will be getting the bat on the ball, and while Boston has struck out plenty this season, we can take solace in the fact that it didn’t do that much last season.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline
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