MLB NRFI Pick Today | Corbin Burnes, Chris Flexen in Brewers vs Mariners (April 17)
Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Corbin Burnes.
- The Milwaukee Brewers and Seattle Mariners square off on Monday night at T-Mobile Park.
- The starting pitching battle pits Corbin Burnes and Chris Flexen against each other.
- Shayne Trail analyzes both pitchers below and makes a NRFI pick for Brewers vs. Mariners.
Shayne Trail breaks down his favorite NRFI/YRFI bets of the day below, but you can follow all of his bets in the Action Network app.
|Matchup||Corbin Burnes vs. Chris Flexen|
|First Pitch||9:40 p.m. ET|
Tonight, we venture to T-Mobile Park, where we aim to uncover value in a No-Run First Inning (NRFI) bet that features two of baseball’s strongest pitchers in the opening frame.
First, we have one of the most respected NRFI pitchers in the league: Corbin Burnes.
Last season, Burnes had a 28-5 NRFI record, including an 11-4 road split. This season, he’s held opponents scoreless twice in three starts, but both of those instances were on the road.
When facing batters for the first time in the order, the 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner has allowed only two hits in 22 at-bats (.091 average). Burnes has also excelled against opposing teams’ leadoff hitters, limiting them to a .111 average and allowing only one hit in nine at-bats.
Furthermore, Burnes has a strong record against several key Seattle Mariners’ hitters: Eugenio Suarez (1-for-7), Tommy La Stella (0-for-3), AJ Pollock (0-for-3) and Teoscar Hernandez (0-for-3). Over the past seven days, the Mariners have struggled in the first inning, hitting a mere .143 average with only three hits in their last 23 plate appearances.
On the other side, we have Chris Flexen. Last season, the Mariners right-hander posted a commendable 18-4 NRFI record, with a 9-1 mark at home. So far in 2023, Flexen has a 2-0 overall NRFI record, with one win coming in Seattle.
Since the start of last season, Flexen is allowing a .216 batting average (41-for-190) when facing batters the first time through the order. Additionally, he has limited experience against Brewers hitters, which gives him an edge. Flexen has successfully held Luke Voit to 0-for-3 in his career, but that’s about it.
With the Brewers projected to have three of their top-five hitters as lefties, it’s worth noting that Flexen has been more effective against left-handed hitters since 2021, holding them to a .231 average and 14 home runs, compared to a .290 average and 25 home runs against right-handed batters.
This NRFI wager is (-130) over on DraftKings and (-120) over on Barstool.
As always, six outs to glory…
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