MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Best Bets From Wednesday Night’s Slate, Including Mets vs. Braves, Diamondbacks vs. Giants (August 17)
Kelsey Grant/Getty Images. Pictured: Carlos Rodon
- Major League Baseball's busy Wednesday rolls on with a host of games this evening.
- Those games include Mets vs. Braves and Diamondbacks vs. Giants and our analysts have picks on both.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of our best bets from this evening's MLB slate.
Wednesday has brought us a slew of baseball games throughout the day, including a handful of afternoon games.
With those wrapping up, it’s time to focus on the night slate. Our analysts are on two games under the lights: Mets vs. Braves and Diamondbacks vs. Giants.
Here are our two best bets from Wednesday night’s Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Mets vs. Braves
DJ James: Jake Odorizzi was a solid add for the Atlanta Braves at the trade deadline. However, he will be facing Max Scherzer on Wednesday. Odorizzi has a solid 3.80 ERA and a 4.02 xERA. He also has not thrown more than four innings in a start in a Braves uniform.
In total contrast, everyone knows Scherzer is a workhorse. He has a 1.93 ERA and 2.80 xERA, which encompasses a little luck, but both numbers are far more favorable than Odorizzi in this matchup. In addition, he strikes out more than 31% of opponents, while only walking 4.2%. This is one of his best walk rates in his career.
Both of these lineups are doing well lately against righties, but that needs context. Odorizzi is not even in the same class as Scherzer, no matter how solid he has been.
The Mets are also a touch better with a 134 wRC+ off of righties in August, while Atlanta’s is 130.
Lastly, New York’s bullpen is far superior in the last month with a 3.55 xFIP against Atlanta’s 23rd in baseball.
Take the Mets with the better pitching matchups. This is a discount with Scherzer starting and how the Mets’ bullpen has performed.
Diamondbacks vs. Giants
Jules Posner: Carlos Rodon takes the mound for the Giants and he’s been on another impressive run. He’s posted a 1.47 ERA over his last three starts with a 2.35 FIP and he hasn’t walked a single batter over that span.
He also carries a sub-2 home ERA and a near-2 FIP into Wednesday night’s match up against a Diamondbacks team that is last in team wRC+ on the road against LHP over the past month.
Zach Davies starts for the D’backs and he has struggled away from home this season. His road ERA sits right at 5.00 and his road FIP is 5.22. He’s also facing a Giants offense that has been hot and has posted a 126 wRC+ at home against RHP over the past two weeks, which is eighth best in MLB.
The Giants’ bullpen has been an issue for them this season, but following two solid starts from Alex Cobb and Jakob Junis, their arms should be relatively well rested. If Rodon pitches as expected, they could have another easy night on Wednesday.
The Giants’ run line opened around +100 and remained there overnight. As long as the run line is in plus money, it’s a great value considering the match up.
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