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MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Our Staff’s Best Bets for Braves vs. Mariners (Saturday, September 10)

MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Our Staff’s Best Bets for Braves vs. Mariners (Saturday, September 10) article feature image
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Adam Hunger/Getty Images. Pictured: Max Fried #54 of the Atlanta Braves.

  • Saturday's baseball slate brings a ton of games, but our betting experts are focused on one matchup.
  • Both analysts see value in Braves vs. Mariners and are leaning toward the same side.
  • Read on for their in-depth analysis and picks.

College football is dominating most of the Saturday sports slate, but there’s no shortage of baseball on the docket.

Our MLB experts have identified some value in the late game tonight between the Atlanta Braves and Seattle Mariners and both are on the same side of this matchup.

Read below for Saturday’s best MLB bets from our analysts.

MLB Odds & Picks

Click on a pick to skip ahead
Braves vs. Mariners Moneyline
9:10 p.m. ET
Braves vs. Mariners Moneyline
9:10 p.m. ET

Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners

Pick
Braves ML (-120)
Book
BetMGM
Pitchers
Max Fried vs. George Kirby
First Pitch
9:10 p.m. ET

DJ James: The Atlanta Braves are now approaching being the favorites for the National League East. The New York Mets have been slowly crumbling lately. The Seattle Mariners and George Kirby will host the Braves this weekend. Max Fried throws the Braves.

Everyone knows how much of an ace Fried is. He has a sub-3.00 xERA and ERA, ranking in the 90th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 85th percentile in Hard Hit Percentage.

Kirby, meanwhile, is a young starter, who has displayed plenty of potential. He has a 3.15 ERA and 3.18 xERA in 105 and 2/3 innings pitched. His issue has mainly been how hard opponents are hitting the ball. He ranks in the 25th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 36th percentile in Hard Hit Percentage. He strikes out hitters at an above average clip and rarely walks anyone, to his benefit.

However, the Braves hold a 113 wRC+ off of righties in the last month. The Mariners have a 106 wRC+ off of lefties, so Atlanta has a steady advantage in the hitting department.

Even if Kirby has shown something for Seattle fans, Fried throws at least six innings in nearly every start, while Kirby sometimes struggles to get to five.

The bullpen difference is negligible in this game. Atlanta has a team xFIP of 3.80, while Seattle’s is 3.86 over the last month.

Take Atlanta with the better starter and lineup and play them to -160.


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Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners

Pick
Braves ML (-120)
Book
BetMGM

Jules Posner: Max Fried has had a relatively soft schedule over his past three starts, but he’ll be taking on a Seattle Mariners team that has posted a 94 wRC+ against LHP at home over the past month. While that mark may seem impressive, it’s only 23rd in MLB over that span.

George Kirby gets the ball for the Mariners and he’s been on a roll in the second half. He’ll be taking on a Braves’ offense that has had its struggles on the road against RHP over the past couple of weeks. However, the Braves played their best baseball heading into the home stretch in 2021, and they appear to be doing that again this season.

The Mariners do have the edge in terms of bullpen play as of late, but the Braves’ have been here before. They have the championship and they have the experience when it comes to these bigger games down the stretch.

The Braves’ moneyline is solid value considering they have their ace on the mound and they are in the midst of a battle for the top spot in the NL East. The Braves’ experience and Max Fried may be too much for George Kirby and the Mariners on Saturday night. Play the moneyline at -150 or better.


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