Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today's slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Kev has that job for Friday, September 4.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Athletics ML (+188)
- Baltimore Orioles ML (+102)
- Cincinnati Reds ML (+139)
Athletics vs Seattle Mariners Pick
The Athletics and Mariners continue their weekend series with a battle between right-handed starters J.T. Ginn and Logan Gilbert.
Seattle is 11 games ahead of the Athletics, yet they are both 4-6 in their past 10 games.
The Mariners have been skidding in recent weeks. They sit at 10-16 since August 6, but are at least still above .500 at home. Unfortunately for them, today's starter Logan Gilbert has been worse at home (3.99 ERA, .306 wOBA allowed) than on the road (2.70 ERA, .261 wOBA allowed).
Gilbert's K-BB is better at home, but he has allowed 19 home runs in T-Mobile Park, while just three away. Meanwhile, opposing starter J.T. Ginn has much more favorable road splits.
- Ginn at home: 3.80 ERA, 6.3% K-BB, 1.43 WHIP, .322 wOBA allowed, 4.78 xFIP
- Ginn on the road: 3.63 ERA, 15.7% K-BB, 1.06 WHIP, .284 wOBA allowed, 3.85 xFIP
Also, the Athletics' offense (108 wRC+) is better than the Mariners' offense (102 wRC+) in the past two weeks.
The Mariners have a significant bullpen advantage, but Ginn has pitched six or more innings in five of his past six starts. Ginn has also pitched eight innings in a start twice this season.
If Ginn can provide the necessary length, this Athletics moneyline should turn out quite inflated.
Pick: Athletics ML (+188)
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Pick
Ranger Suarez is struggling lately. He has a 5.72 ERA, backed by a 5.32 xERA, 5.14 FIP, and 5.36 xFIP since July 31. He is still having an excellent season overall, but this stretch is muddying what would have been another low-3.00 ERA year.
Suarez will face an Orioles offense that is ninth against LHP (103 wRC+) this season and 11th in offense over the past 30 days (103 wRC+). Also, the Orioles just added lefty-masher Luis Robert Jr. to the lineup (career 137 wRC+ vs LHP).
Shane Baz takes the mound for Baltimore, and he will look to drop his ERA below 4.00 tonight. Baz has rebounded from last season's 4.87 ERA and done well in his new home park.
Baz at home: 3.82 ERA, 13.2% K-BB, 3.11 FIP, 3.99 xFIP
His wOBA allowed at home is higher than on the road, but this is due to an unlucky .350 BABIP. Baz has allowed fewer HR at home (4) than on the road (7) and may build on a stretch of promising starts. Baz has a 3.60 ERA, backed by a 3.08 xERA, 3.50 FIP, and 3.51 xFIP since July 12.
The Boston Red Sox activated Roman Anthony and Trevor Story this week, yet just lost 2026 All-Stars Willson Contreras and Ceddanne Rafaela. They have the second-best offense in baseball this past month, but only the 11th-best in the past two weeks.
Much of Boston's recent production is a result of Mickey Gaspar's hot streak and, more recently, Adley Rutschman's two-homer day in his return to Baltimore on Thursday.
The Orioles did not have several relievers available yesterday, but should today, aside from Yennier Cano.
Pick: Baltimore Orioles ML (+102)
Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Pick
There is a 279-run gap between the Brewers and Reds, yet we are taking the team with a -108 differential to win today.
The Reds have won five of their past seven games and have the seventh-best offense in the past two weeks (111 wRC+). While they face the second-best offense in this span (124 wRC+), Cincinnati should take the opening game of this series.
Brewers starter Shane Drohan has better results on the road, while allowing fewer hits and home runs, but he induces fewer strikeouts and grants more walks.
He pitched Cincinnati's tough home park on June 24 and was pulled after 4 1/3 innings because he allowed eight batters to reach base.
This outing may not be as kind as that zero-ER start. Drohan was an incredible SP for his first two months of starts, but he has slid lately. His 4.84 ERA in August is backed by a 4.70 xERA, 4.98 FIP, and 4.98 xFIP.
Despite quality outings in his past two starts, he was used in relief just prior and has not pitched more than 5 1/3 IP since July 31.
On the opposing mound, Reds starter Rhett Lowder has been converted from starter to reliever and back to starter. He has pitched at least five innings in each of his past seven starts, while throwing at least six innings in four of his past six starts.
Lowder's season-long 5.14 ERA is gaudy. However, he has a league-average 4.11 ERA in the aforementioned past six starts, with average peripherals. He is not a special SP, but he has a 3.35 ERA at home compared to an egregious 6.79 on the road.
Lowder has allowed the same home run total at home and on the road (8), but earns more strikeouts and allows fewer walks in Great American Ballpark, while creating much more soft contact. He will need to do so against a Brewers offense tied for first against RHP (111 wRC+).
The Brewers bullpen advantage is significant, but they have also pitched much more in the past three days than the Reds' relievers. This moneyline is appetizing if Lowder can continue to provide his usual length for Cincinnati.
Pick: Cincinnati Reds ML (+139)
Kev's MLB Picks and Predictions for Friday, September 4
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Athletics ML (+188)
- Baltimore Orioles ML (+102)
- Cincinnati Reds ML (+139)
