Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Ryan Minion has that job for Sunday, August 2.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Phillies vs Orioles NRFI
- CJ Abrams Over 1.5 TB
- Reds F5 ML
- Chase Burns to Record a Win
- Chase Burns Over Strikeouts
- Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 HRR
- Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 TB
- Willi Castro Over 1.5 TB
- Salvador Perez Over 2.5 HRR
- Brewers vs Angels NRFI
- Brewers ML
Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles Pick
Right-hander Zack Wheeler will take the mound for the visiting Phillies, while righty Kyle Bradish will make the start for the Orioles.
In 17 outings, Wheeler has been phenomenal, recording an impressive 2.53 ERA on the season.
He has also been remarkably efficient on the bump with a 0.92 WHIP across 103 innings.
While not quite as dominant as his Sunday counterpart, Bradish has been very reliable for Baltimore, ranking inside the top-40 amongst starting pitchers with a 3.74 ERA across his 118 innings pitched.
In a game I expect runs to come at a premium, with both starters entering Sunday’s contest in stellar form, I favor backing for there to be no runs scored in the first inning of the game as my primary betting angle.
Pick: NRFI
Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Pick
Martin Perez will make the start for the Braves, while the Nats will trot out right-hander Cade Cavalli.
Despite Cavalli having only 11 starts this season, he has been a reliable arm for Washington’s rotation with a 3.55 ERA on the season.
Like Cavalli, Perez has been very solid for the Braves, with a slightly superior 3.49 ERA mark.
Even though Perez is posting his best metrics in several years, I still feel that the Braves’ veteran could potentially be vulnerable on Sunday afternoon to CJ Abrams, who has been red hot.
Abrams ranks inside the top-15 with a .290 AVG and has driven in more runners (82 RBIs) than anyone else.
According to BARTOLO, Perez throws his sinker far more than any other pitch in his arsenal, relying on his premier weapon at a 33.4% clip.
Despite him heavily relying on this pitch, Perez has been very vulnerable this season when throwing his sinker, with opposing hitters having recorded a .365 xwOBA.
He has also had difficulty retiring hitters, with his sinker having generated just an 8% whiff rate and a 14% strikeout rate.
Abrams handles sinkers very well, consistently generating high-velocity damage and strong extra-base production versus this pitch, so much so that he's already homered off a Perez sinker in the past.
Pick: CJ Abrams Over 1.5 TB
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Picks
Chase Burns will take the mound for the Reds, while the Pirates will start veteran righty Mitch Keller.
In 20 appearances, Burns has been outstanding, posting a 12-1 overall record on the season with a 2.40 ERA across nearly 113 frames – ranking inside the top-5 amongst starting pitchers on both accounts.
Burns has also been efficient, posting a 1.12 WHIP on the season, which ranks inside the top-20 amongst starters.
While Burns has been a model of consistency on the mound throughout his second season, his Sunday counterpart has not had quite the same luck.
Keller enters Sunday’s divisional clash in some very subpar form, with a 4.83 ERA, as well as a 1.31 WHIP on the season thus far.
This should not be quite as surprising with Keller’s career 4.55 ERA across his eight-year career.
I expect Burns’ stellar punch-out prowess (T20 in MLB with 128 Ks) to be on full display on Sunday afternoon versus a Pirates’ lineup that leads all of baseball in strikeouts.
Picks:
- Reds F5 ML
- Chase Burns to Record a Win
- Chase Burns Over Strikeouts
Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Picks
Right-hander Kumar Rocker will take the mound for the Rangers in what has been a very up-and-down 2026 campaign.
In just his third season, Rocker has recorded a 4.03 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP across nearly 103 frames of work.
Given Rocker’s volatility, he has at times shown extreme vulnerability to heavy damage at the plate, which is why I will be looking to back Astros’ slugger Yordan Alvarez to maintain his scorching form at the plate.
Alvarez is on a tear, smashing 35 homers and driving in 80 runners on the season thus far, ranking first and second in all of baseball, respectively.
Beyond his power, he’s efficient as well, ranking third with a .321 AVG and second with a 1.073 OPS.
Alvarez also has previously dominated Rocker in the two’s previous encounters with three hits, two homers and four RBIs across four at-bats.
BARTOLO indicates that despite Rocker throwing his sinker at a 29.3% clip, opposing hitters have recorded a .402 xwOBA versus that pitch alongside extremely low punchout metrics, with his sinker having generated just a 9% whiff rate and a 5% strikeout rate.
Given Alvarez’s previous success versus Rocker, his elite form at the plate, and a batting average well over .400 against sinkers, I believe he can exceed both his 1.5 HRR and 1.5 TB marks on Sunday afternoon in what I expect to be another phenomenal performance for one of baseball’s premier sluggers.
Picks:
- Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 HRR
- Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 TB
Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies Picks
I expect plenty of offense in this battle between the Royals and Rockies, given the hitter-friendly ballpark conditions at Coors Field.
In 22 outings, Royals’ veteran right-hander Seth Lugo has recorded a 4.22 ERA along with a 1.37 WHIP across his nearly 124 innings.
Like Lugo, Rockies’ lefty Kyle Freeland is no stranger to struggles on the mound, holding a 4.75 ERA throughout his ten seasons in Colorado.
Yet, Freeland is having his worst season yet, with a 7.34 ERA across his 99 innings and a porous 1.55 WHIP.
I expect Royals’ veteran slugger Salvador Perez to have a massive day at the plate versus a struggling Freeland who has previously recorded three hits and two RBIs across his nine at-bats.
BARTOLO indicates that Freeland elects to throw his four-seam fastball far more than any other offering in his arsenal, having thrown his heater at a 25.4% clip.
Despite his heavy reliance on his four-seamer, Freeland has allowed opposing hitters to record a .410 xwOBA against that pitch this season.
Given Freeland’s vast struggles with command this season, he has consistently been forced to throw strikes in the zone early in counts, which has resulted in opposing hitters smoking his primary offering over the heart of the plate.
Perez crushes four-seam fastballs in the zone, especially considering how much Freeland’s primary weapon has fallen in velocity, with his heater having been thrown at an average VELO of just 91.5 MPH.
I will also be looking to target Rockies’ 2B Willi Castro to find success at the plate versus Lugo, whom he has dominated in the two’s previous encounters.
In his 10 career AB versus Lugo, Castro has recorded four hits, two of which were for extra bases.
Picks:
- Willi Castro Over 1.5 TB
- Salvador Perez Over 2.5 HRR
Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels Picks
Jacob Misiorowski is set to take the mound for the Brewers and looks to build upon what has been the most impressive campaign of any pitcher in baseball.
While Misiorowski sits as a sizable favorite to win the 2026 National League Cy Young Award, the Angels will start 22-year-old Walbert Urena, who has been one of the most underrated pitchers this season.
In 20 starts, the Brewers’ ace leads all of baseball in ERA (1.58), WHIP (0.75), and strikeouts (185 Ks) amongst a few others.
On the other side of the coin, Urena enters Sunday’s matchup in some elite form on the mound with an impressive 2.70 ERA.
In just over 93 innings, Urena has surrendered just 28 earned runs and a 1.26 WHIP.
Conversely, the Angels have struggled mightily at the plate, which has resulted in Urena only recording six wins on the season.
Given the dominance from both starters heading into Sunday afternoon’s interleague showdown, I favor backing for there to be no runs scored in the first inning of this contest.
As a secondary betting angle, I will take the Brewers to reign supreme on Sunday afternoon behind another exceptional outing from baseball’s top arm.
Picks:
- NRFI
- Brewers ML
Minion's MLB Picks and Predictions for Sunday, August 2
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Phillies vs Orioles NRFI
- CJ Abrams Over 1.5 TB
- Reds F5 ML
- Chase Burns to Record a Win
- Chase Burns Over Strikeouts
- Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 HRR
- Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 TB
- Willi Castro Over 1.5 TB
- Salvador Perez Over 2.5 HRR
- Brewers vs Angels NRFI
- Brewers ML
