Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Ryan Minion has that job for Saturday, September 5.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Braves ML (-106)
- Ronald Acuña Jr. Over 1.5 HRR (-120)
- Ronald Acuña Jr. 1+ HR (+410)
- Angels vs Pirates NRFI (-148)
- Guardians ML (-168)
- Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 HRR (-120)
Braves vs Phillies Pick
The Phillies will host the Braves on Sunday afternoon in the third of a four-game homestand at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.
The 31-year-old righty, Tyler Mahle, will take the mound for Atlanta, while longtime Phils veteran right-hander Aaron Nola will make the start for the home team.
While the Braves’ Mahle has recorded a largely unimpressive 4.25 ERA on the season thus far, a deeper dive reveals that the former Giant is in scorching form on the mound heading into Sunday’s matchup.
Since being acquired at the deadline via San Francisco, the Braves’ vet has been a completely different pitcher, having recorded a quality start (QS) in four of his five outings with Atlanta.
Across those five appearances on the mound, Mahle has recorded an exceptional 1.48 ERA along with a 0.96 WHIP.
On the other hand, Nola is currently posting a 4.93 ERA on the season, with the 33-year-old also having been absolutely dominated by this Braves’ lineup for years, given he has pitched in the NL East for his entire professional career.
Though Nola has greatly improved over his recent outings as well, this is a spot I expect Philadelphia’s righty to really struggle given his previous encounters with the majority of hitters in an absolutely loaded Braves lineup. I expect this to be a clear regression spot for Nola.
Given my fondness for Mahle’s current form and Nola’s career struggles versus Atlanta, I favor backing the Braves on their moneyline as my first of three handicaps ahead of Sunday’s divisional showdown.
For my next two wagers, I will be looking to target Braves’ superstar OF Ronald Acuña Jr to have a monster day at the plate.
Across 60 previous at-bats (AB) versus Nola, Ronnie has recorded 21 hits, with ten of them having been for extra-bases — six doubles & four homers, while having driven in eight runners (RBIs) in the process.
Given Acuña’s established edge over Nola with an extensive sample size extending several years, I feel confident backing the former NL MVP winner to exceed his 1.5 HRR (Hits + Runs + RBIs) on Sunday afternoon.
Nola also leads all starting pitchers in the entire MLB in home run rate (HR/9) at 2.08 per BARTOLO — a new statistical baseball model generated by the Action Network’s Sean Zerillo.
Given Nola’s susceptibility to allowing dingers and with Acuña having already done so off of Nola in the past, I'm willing to take a shot on Ronald to smash another on Sunday afternoon.
Picks: Braves ML (-106) | Ronald Acuña Jr Over 1.5 HRR (-120) | Ronald Acuña Jr 1+ HR (+410)
Angels vs Pirates Pick
The Pirates and Angels will duke it out on Sunday at PNC Park in Pittsburgh in what I expect to be a phenomenal starting-pitching matchup with runs likely coming at a premium.
Pirates’ 24-year-old ace Paul Skenes will take the mound amidst a very tough stretch in just his second season pitching in the Big Leagues, while the Halos will start 22-year-old rookie right-hander Walbert Urena.
Urena is in scorching form on the mound, with the Angels’ rookie currently posting a stellar 2.85 ERA on the season thus far, along with a relatively efficient 1.26 WHIP as well.
While many are concerned about Skenes, who was widely projected to win the NL Cy Young Award this season yet has recorded a near-4.00 ERA in 2026 thus far, I view Sunday’s contest as a prime “get right” spot for the Pirates youngster.
Though Bucs superstar O’Niel Cruz has been on an absolute tear at the plate since just recently returning from the IL, I still have faith in Urena’s ability to pitch a scoreless first frame given how exceptional he has looked all year long.
That said, I feel confident backing for there to be no runs scored in the first inning of Sunday afternoon’s interleague clash.
Pick: NRFI (-148)
Guardians vs Tigers Pick
The Guardians will host the Tigers on Sunday afternoon in the last of a four-game homestand at Progressive Field in Cleveland.
27-year-old righty Gavin Williams will take the mound for the Guardians, looking to build upon what has been a solid 2026 campaign thus far. Right-handed youngster Jackson Jobe will take the mound for Detroit.
In five starts, Jobe has recorded a subpar 4.63 ERA along with a 1.46 WHIP on the season thus far, though he has slightly improved over his last few outings.
On the other hand, Williams has been far more reliable for Cleveland this season, with the fourth-year Guardian having recorded a 3.81 ERA with a remarkable 1.09 WHIP as well- both of which rank inside the top-25 amongst starting pitchers.
Given Cleveland’s advantage on the mound on Sunday, my first of two betting angles in Sunday’s contest will be on the Guardians moneyline.
While the Tigers’ right-hander has a rather small sample to reference in regard to targeting Guardian player prop markets on Sunday afternoon, this is a spot I absolutely love Cleveland superstar 3B Jose Ramirez to have a massive day at the plate.
Jobe has an electric four-seam fastball frequently clocking at triple-digit MPH, but his whiff-rate (WHF%) is far lower than you would expect from a strikeout pitcher, largely due to his heavy reliance on movement and horizontal break.
Ramirez boasts incredibly impressive patience at the plate, rarely chasing out of the zone, which I expect to make him very difficult to strike out.
If Jobe’s elite breaking stuff is not garnering a reaction from Ramirez early in the count, the Tigers’ 24-year-old will be forced to throw strikes via his high-velocity offerings over the plate, which could leave him susceptible to heavy damage from Jose’s pull-side power generation.
Given the Tigers’ righty has struggled with command in his more recent outings and Ramirez is boasting exceptional plate discipline and XWOBA, I favor backing the Guardians’ slugger to exceed his 1.5 HRR (Hits + Runs + RBIs) on Sunday afternoon.
Picks: Guardians ML (-168)| Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 HRR (-120)
Minion's MLB Picks and Predictions for Sunday, September 6
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Braves ML (-106)
- Ronald Acuña Jr. Over 1.5 HRR (-120)
- Ronald Acuña Jr. 1+ HR (+410)
- Angels vs Pirates NRFI (-148)
- Guardians ML (-168)
- Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 HRR (-120)
