MLB Odds, Picks Today: Braves vs. Phillies Betting Preview (Friday, September 23)
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Schwarber.
- The Braves take on the Phillies in a game that has high playoff stakes riding on it.
- Which betting market should you target?
- Nicholas Martin breaks down the prop that deserves your attention.
Braves vs. Phillies Odds
|Over/Under||7 (-128 / +104)|
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Jake Odorizzi and Aaron Nola will battle on Friday in a matchup with heavy playoff implications.
The Braves and Phillies remain locked in close playoff battles down the stretch, and every game is crucial from this point on.
Atlanta enters this contest 1.5 games back of the Mets with just 12 games left on the schedule, while Philadelphia is well situated to break its playoff drought, holding on to a 2.5 game lead over the Brewers for the final Wild Card spot.
Let’s dive in on a potential betting angle for this intriguing Friday night affair.
Odorizzi has consistently failed to pitch deep into ball games since arriving with the Braves, managing a relatively poor ERA of 4.78 with a WHIP of 1.50 altogether.
Those marks are on par with what we have seen all season long from the 32-year old righty, including a 4.60 xFIP. Odorizzi’s underlying metrics suggest his middling play should continue moving forward.
He holds a QOPA of just 4.00, and has seen his fastball velocity fall even further behind the rest of baseball throughout the 2022 campaign.
Odorizzi’s worst splits this season have been on the road against left-handed batters, as opponents have slugged .440.
Philadelphia has hit very effectively as a team throughout the last 30 days with a fifth-best wRC+ of 117 in the league, and it’ll have a strong chance to build on what has been a quality push to the postseason offensively in this matchup against Odorizzi.
Kyle Schwarber has put together another quality month, slugging at a .443 clip throughout 70 AB’s entering tonight’s contest.
Schwarber has terrorized right-handed pitching yet again this season, with a .530 slug-rate throughout 349 PA’s after a ridiculous 2021 campaign versus righties.
Odorizzi has located his fastball up 67% of the time this season, which is the highest mark in the league amongst pitchers who have thrown over 70 innings.
You would expect the Odorizzi and the Braves won’t try to pitch Schwarber that way, but should they be foolish enough to try it could be a disaster, as Schwarber has hit to an xSLG of .386 and .418 in the upper quadrants.
Schwarber has also been ridiculous against the fastball altogether, hitting to an xSLG of .575 this season, and he appears likely to make some noise in this matchup.
Schwarber has absolutely dominated right-handed pitching yet again this season, and gets a matchup with a below average righty in Odorozzi Friday in this important spot. I believe it’s likely we see that dominance continue.
There are certainly some reasonably plausible game scripts in which the Braves end up throwing their softer relievers late in this one, and perhaps even a fifth at-bat for Schwarber comes into play, so I think it’s a strong spot to target his total bases prop.
+125 is widely available and it goes as the bottom number I would play for Schwarber to manage over 1.5 bases. However, BetRivers currently has an outlier price of +150 posted, which I feel is a great number in this spot.
Pick: Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases +150 (Play to +125)