MLB Picks Today: Cardinals vs. Brewers Betting Preview (Tuesday, September 27)

MLB Picks Today: Cardinals vs. Brewers Betting Preview (Tuesday, September 27) article feature image

Patrick McDermott/Getty Images. Pictured: Rowdy Tellez #11 of the Milwaukee Brewers.

  • The Cardinals and Brewers meet in an important matchup for the home team.
  • The Brewers enter Tuesday 1.5 games back in the NL wild card race.
  • Nicholas Martin explains why the best bet in the matchup is a player prop.

Cardinals vs. Brewers Odds

Cardinals Odds-115
Brewers Odds+102
Over/Under8.5 (-108/-110)
Time7:40 p.m. ET
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Milwaukee Brewers will host the rival St. Louis Cardinals for the first of a crucial two-game set Tuesday at American Family Field. The Brewers enter in the middle of a tight wild card race, sitting 1.5 games back of the Phillies for the final playoff berth out of the National League.

Adrian Houser will draw the start for Milwaukee, and will be opposed by Miles Mikolas of the Cardinals, who has continued to trend downwards as the season has moved along.

Will Milwaukee's stars find some offense from Mikolas in this big spot?

Is Miles Mikolas Starting to Fade for the Cardinals?

Miles Mikolas has started to struggle down the stretch with an ERA of 4.68 since the All-star break. Many have anticipated this regression based upon his middling metric profile, including a 3.91 xERA.

Opponents aren't chasing Mikolas' stuff very often, a problem that has worsened over his past three outings, in which batters have chased just 21% of his pitches with two strikes, the lowest in MLB during that span.

Mikolas has also fared considerably worse away from home, in what is now somewhat of a relevant sample size, as he holds an ERA of 4.29 on the road with a WHIP of 1.24 throughout 98.2 IP.

Brewers Hitters Have Been Key All Season

If you said Milwaukee would bat at very respectable rates this season and still miss the playoffs it would have been considered quite a bold take, but here we are and that could be exactly the case.

Milwaukee has batted at the level of other playoff bound teams down the stretch, managing a 12th-best wRC+ of 104 over the last 30 days, and a ninth-best rate since the All-Star break. The Brewers have hit effectively against right-handed pitching in particular, with a fifth-best wRC+ league wide of 109 on the season.

Rowdy Tellez has been a huge part of that success, and I believe he could be well positioned to thrive again tonight. He's slugged .500 against righties this season, and at home he has been even more potent versus righties, slugging .590.

Tellez has faced off against Mikolas 12 times this season hitting .364, and the only plate appearance not ending in a batted ball in play, ended in a walk. He  has consistently hit the ball hard in those PA's, managing six hard-hit balls (greater than 95 MPH), and an average exit velo of 90.7 altogether.

Cardinals-Brewers Pick

BetRivers has again offered a far better than average on this contest with Rowdy Tellez priced at +160 to collect over 1.5 total bases, and if you are a user of that site, or one with a similar number I believe this is a great play.

Tellez has made a ton of consistently solid contact over a relevant sample size versus Mikolas, and the fact that it's all been this season is something I like.

He has hit right-handed pitching extremely well at home all season long, and +160 is a very long number for a batter who has fared this well in these splits, in a game against a middle-of-the-pack starter, and with a total of 8.5.

Pick: Rowdy Tellez +160 (Play to +130)

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