MLB Picks Today: Reds vs. Pirates Betting Preview (Wednesday, September 28)

MLB Picks Today: Reds vs. Pirates Betting Preview (Wednesday, September 28) article feature image

Justin Berl/Getty Images. Pictured: Bryse Wilson.

  • The Pirates host the Reds on Wednesday afternoon as they look for the sweep at home.
  • The Reds will start Luis Cessa on the mound while the Pirates will counter with Bryse Wilson.
  • Check out Jules Posner's picks and analysis below.

Reds vs. Pirates Odds

Reds Odds+100
Pirates Odds-120
Time12:35 p.m. ET
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Pittsburgh Pirates look to complete the three-game sweep over the Cincinnati Reds on Wednesday afternoon. The Pirates are looking to make it sweeps in consecutive series against the Reds, and that is just a weird sentence to type.

Bryse Wilson gets the ball in the series finale for the Pirates, and Luis Cessa will take the hill for the Reds.

Obviously this has not been a great season for either team, but it's clear that they are heading in different directions. The Pirates are in the midst of a youth movement, and the Reds are fighting to stay out of last place in the NL Central. This should be a great matchup for fans of terrible match ups.

Reds Stuck in a Rut

Since becoming a full-time starter, Cessa hasn't been that bad. He also hasn't been that good either. He has a 3.94 ERA with a 5.43 FIP across seven starts over the past two months. These aren't amazing numbers, but the Reds are not an amazing team.

Speaking of things that aren't amazing, the Reds bullpen has been really not amazing this season. They have been the worst bullpen in MLB over the past couple of weeks and one of the worst over the course of the season. It's just a mess out there.

Additionally, the Reds offense has really struggled against right-handed pitching (RHP) on the road as of late. They are 27th in team wRC+ against RHP on the road over the past two weeks, and even with a favorable match up, it's hard to trust them to get runs on the board.

Pirates Hitters Look to Stay Hot Against Righties

Wilson has had a rough 2022 season, but he has pitched relatively well against three teams this season, and one of those teams is the Reds.

Wilson is 1-1 with a 3.26 ERA against the Reds this season, and outside of one impressive start against the Baltimore Orioles, Wilson has only looked decent against the Reds.

The Pirates' offense seems to have found a rhythm heading into the end of the season. They have been a top-10 offense in terms of wRC+ against RHP at home over the past couple of weeks.

Additionally, the Pirates bullpen has been much better than the Reds bullpen this season. Although they are still a bad unit, they are not the worst, unlike the Reds bullpen.

Reds-Pirates Pick

While this matchup may be one of the least anticipated games in MLB history, there is still some value to be wrung out of it.

The Pirates moneyline still sits at a decent -120 value. Considering their favorable edges and recent ownership of the Reds, look for them to complete yet another sweep of Cincinnati. The Reds don't seem to have the pitching to slow down the Pirates' offense, nor do they have the offense to put up much of a fight. Play this line to -140 or better.

Pick: Pirates ML -120

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