MLB Picks, Odds, Predictions for Astros vs Braves, Padres vs Diamondbacks, More on Saturday, April 22
Photo by Kevin D. Liles/Atlanta Braves/Getty Images. Pictured: Ronald Acuna Jr.
- As usual, Saturday in MLB is loaded with 16 games due to a doubleheader between the Marlins and Guardians.
- Our staff has three best bets for Saturday, including picks for Astros vs. Braves, Orioles vs. Tigers and Padres vs Diamondbacks.
- Check out their picks and analysis below.
The MLB slate is loaded on Saturday, April 22, and our baseball experts here at Action Network have a number of betting picks for the evening games.
In particular, they are on the Orioles vs. Tigers, Astros vs. Braves and Padres vs. Diamondbacks. San Diego boy Joe Musgrove makes his season debut at Chase Field — and, of course, Fernando Tatis Jr. is also back.
Continue reading below to see their analysis and best bets for Saturday night.
TODAY MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tigers vs. Orioles
Saturday, April 22 7:05 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Under 8.5  |
By Nick Shlain
The Baltimore Orioles walked off the Detroit Tigers on Friday night, scoring a run in the bottom of the ninth inning to break a 1-1 tie. There wasn’t much offense to speak of on the night.
While Baltimore is fifth in runs per game, the Tigers are 28th. Friday's starting pitchers, Tyler Wells and Michael Lorenzen, had little trouble holding down these offenses, and I think we’ll see more of the same on Saturday night.
One of my favorite bets on the slate is for the Tigers and Orioles to go under 8.5 runs at -112.
Joey Wentz, who gets the start for Detroit, was outstanding in his last game against the Giants at home. He struck out seven batters and allowed only one run over 5 2/3 innings.
Kyle Gibson will start for the Orioles and he has a 4.18 ERA after four starts, but the Tigers offense doesn’t scare anyone. Detroit will also have a ballpark downgrade here as the dimensions at Camden Yards are much bigger in left field.
The Orioles bullpen is eighth in the league with a 3.33 ERA. I can’t see the Tigers having an offensive outbreak here, and with Wentz on the mound, I expect this game to go under.
Pick: Under 8.5
Astros vs. Braves
Saturday, April 22 7:20 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Over 8.5  |
By Sean Zerillo
Through two starts coming off shoulder inflammation, we have seen a diminished version of Kyle Wright, whose fastball is down more than two ticks relative to last season (94.7 mph). Coupling the shoulder inflammation with the velocity drop is a big red flag, but perhaps Wright is rounding his way back into form. The Braves do not need to push any of their players, and I doubt that they would let Wright pitch if they were concerned.
Even still, Wright has blowup potential, and these are two potent offenses — in a hitter’s park at Truist Field — in neutral to favorable offensive conditions.
I projected the totals at 4.8 and 8.85 — bet the F5 Over 4.5 to -109 and play the Over 8.5 to -103.
Pick 1: F5 Over 4.5 |
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Pick 2: Over 8.5 |
Padres vs. Diamondbacks
Saturday, April 22 8:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Under 9.5 |
By D.J. James
Joe Musgrove will make his 2023 debut against Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks. This is an excellent pitching matchup, especially as each starter is going up a team that struggles against right-handed pitching.
The Padres have a team wRC+ of 93 with a 25.7% strikeout rate. They walk more than 11% against righties, but don't do much else.
Arizona ranks 21st (right behind San Diego) with a 91 wRC+ and a paltry 5.5% walk rate.
On the pitching side, Musgrove was one of the best in the league last season. He held an Average Exit Velocity of 86.4 mph with a Hard Hit Rate ranking in the 88th percentile. His ERA was 2.97 and his xERA was 3.27.
Kelly is as stable as they come. The 34-year-old righty held a 3.37 ERA against a 3.62 xERA in 2022. He ranks in the 24th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 47th percentile in Hard Hit Rate in 2023, but he should bounce back. He's went at least six innings (against the Brewers and Cardinals) in his past two starts, allowing a total of four earned runs. He should be fine against a below-average lineup, even with the addition of Fernando Tatis Jr. for the Padres.
In relief, both teams have a top half of the league xFIP. Arizona has been slightly better, but each side has enough arms to back up strong starting options.
The under is inflated here, so bet it down to 8 (-115).
Pick: Under 9.5 | Playable to Under 8 |
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