MLB Predictions Wednesday, April 12 for Red Sox vs Rays, Braves vs Reds Today
Pictured: Randy Arozarena. (Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images)
Each team is in action as there are 15 games across MLB's Wednesday slate and when there are that many games on the schedule, it means there are numerous betting opportunities.
Our experts have looked over the games and identified a trio of bets worth eyeing over. They're targeting a team total, a full-game total and an underdog on the moneyline.
Continue reading to see their best MLB bets for Wednesday, April 12.
Wednesday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Astros vs. Pirates
Wednesday, April 12 12:35 p.m. MLB.TV |
Astros Team Total Over 5 (-105)  |
By D.J. James
Rich Hill has had a rough start to his 2023 campaign, allowing 10 earned runs over nine innings to the White Sox and Reds. And now he has to face the Astros?
Houston is one of the best hitting teams against left-handers, even without José Altuve and Michael Brantley in the lineup.
The Houston lineup may be short-handed, but they can still hit lefties. So far this season, Houston owns a 144 wRC+ off of lefties with only a 12.2% strikeout rate and a .352 OBP. Yes, the sample size is only 82 plate appearances, but this only ranks below the Los Angeles Angels and Tampa Bay Rays. In 2022, Houston held the second-best wRC+ off of lefties (124) with a 17.4% strikeout rate, so the Astros are picking up right where they left off.
Hill might be showing his age (43) a little bit. In 2022, he ranked in the 76th percentile in Hard-Hit Rate and the 56th percentile in Average Exit Velocity. Now, he ranks in the 44th and 15th percentile, respectively. He still drops in the curveball more than most, which can keep some hitters off balance, but Houston is 9-for-27 off off-speed pitches in 2023.
The Astros should hit their team total in this game. Bet it from 5 (-105) and play to 5.5 (-120).
Pick: Astros Team Total Over 5 (-105)
Red Sox vs. Rays
Wednesday, April 12 6:40 p.m. MLB.TV |
Over 8 (-110)  |
Tampa Bay is 11-0, the most wins to start a season since 1981.
It’s not just that the Rays are winning every game, but they’re also demolishing teams. They have outscored their opponents 83-20 through 11 games and have won 10 of their 11 games by at least four runs.
The total in this game is set at eight and Tampa Bay’s offense is averaging 7.5 runs on its own. Tampa Bay has gone 7-3-1 to the over this season, while Boston is 7-4 to the over.
Chris Sale is no longer the pitcher he once was. His velocity is down and he is really struggling with his control. His early walk rate is more than double his career average. Both his hard-hit rate and average exit velocity allowed would be career worsts.
Now, he faces a Tampa Bay lineup that has a .392 career average and a .430 wOBA against him. Franco is a ridiculous 5-for-7 with a home run against Sale.
Taj Bradley, who will be making his MLB debut for the Rays, is an exciting young arm, but he is still just 22-years-old with only 14 career starts in Triple-A. Additionally, the Boston offense hasn’t been the problem. The Red Sox rank fourth in the league in scoring and still have Rafael Devers and Alex Verdugo to provide juice.
Back this Tampa Bay offense to stay hot against a washed Sale, and the Red Sox bats to contribute against the inexperienced Bradley.
Pick: Over 8 | Play to 8.5 |
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Braves vs. Reds
Wednesday, April 12 7:20 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Reds Moneyline (+225) |
By D.J. James
The Cincinnati Reds are hit and miss, and Hunter Greene could be classified in the same manner. He will face the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday, and his counterpart will be Spencer Strider, a potential Cy Young candidate.
Greene does one thing phenomenally well: strike out hitters. He may have a tendency to issue walks or give up hard contact, but over the course of the past two seasons, he is striking out 31% of hitters. Of course, it helps that he throws a 100 mph fastball and an 89 mph slider. However, his walk rate has been a problem in two starts as he's walked three in each.
Atlanta ranks in the middle of the pack in strikeout rate against righties, so Greene should have a decent number in this game.
The problem is Cincinnati strikes out more than the Braves, and Strider is striking out 40% of hitters thus far. That said, Strider has also had some control issues, walking three batters in both of his starts, too.
The kicker is the Reds have a better wRC+ against righties than the Braves do. The Reds come in at 100, while Atlanta’s is at 90. In addition, the Reds are walking 11.7% of the time against the Braves’ walk rate of 10.7%.
The Braves will be missing Travis d’Arnaud, Michael Harris, Collin McHugh, Raisel Iglesias and Kolby Allard. This does a number on both the lineup and the relief corps.
The Reds, meanwhile, will be without Nick Senzel and Joey Votto, which certainly doesn't help.
However, this line is too inflated. Take the Reds on the moneyline at +225 and play them to +190. Greene could have a nice outing.
Pick: Reds Moneyline |
What is
QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an
Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load
their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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