MLB PrizePicks Today, Featuring Jazz Chisholm Jr., Aaron Judge, More (Tuesday, April 25)
Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images. Pictured: Jazz Chisholm Jr.
We have a stacked 15-game slate of Major League Baseball on Tuesday, which means there are plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks. A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different player squares to payout up to 10x your entry.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money if you do not nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I would approach Tuesday's MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player picks in which you combine two or more entries together.
Aaron Judge Hitter Fantasy Score Less Than 7.5
The second installment of this three-game series is set to get underway on Tuesday evening with the Minnesota Twins hosting the New York Yankees. Right-hander Joe Ryan is slated to take the mound for Minnesota, someone who should be an excellent candidate to back.
Off to a tremendous start this season, Ryan is 4-0 with a 3.24 ERA and a 0.76 WHIP through four starts. His underlying metrics suggest regression is unlikely. He ranks in 77th percentile or higher in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, K%, BB% and Chase Rate.
One of those four starts came against the Yankees just a few weeks ago. In that outing, Ryan tossed a gem. He allowed just one run on three hits and accumulated 10 strikeouts (and no walks) in seven innings.
The first New York hitter we are fading in this contest is superstar Aaron Judge. In his career against Ryan, Judge is 0-for-4 with three strikeouts and one walk.
Judge's underlying metrics across that small sample size suggests positive regression may be difficult to come by. He's posted a .032 xBA, .068 xSLG and .170 xwOBA. While Judge is obviously always a massive threat at the dish, he has failed to record more than 7.5 fantasy points in each of his past four games.
Anthony Rizzo Hitter Fantasy Score Less Than 6.5
The other Yankees hitter to fade is Anthony Rizzo. Soaring through this number in the game against Ryan earlier this season, Rizzo went 2-for-3 against the right-hander with a home run and a single.
However, his underlying metrics over those three at-bats suggest that regression is likely. Despite the strong performance, Rizzo produced a mere .132 xBA, .283 xSLG and .174 xwOBA.
This regression could come to fruition against a righty due to the fact that his splits have taken an approximate 15% dip when doing so since 2021. Additionally, playing on the road has not been as kind to Rizzo, whose splits take an approximate 14% dip since 2021, which is not surprising given the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium for the left-handed hitter.
Rizzo has now failed to record more than 6.5 fantasy points in three of his past four games.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hitter Fantasy Score More Than 6.5
A NL East series continues with the Atlanta Braves hosting the Miami Marlins. Slated to take the mound for Atlanta is right-hander Charlie Morton, who could be a good fade candidate.
Morton's surface-level stats are a bit misleading to start the year — 2-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. His underlying metrics back up that WHIP statistic much more than his ERA.
This season, the 39-year-old ranks in the 22nd percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and K%. The first Miami hitter we are backing in this contest is outfielder Jazz Chisholm Jr.
There is no denying Chisholm is struggling through the early part of the season. However, if any matchup could turn things around for him, it's this one against Morton. In 18 career plate appearances against the right-hander, Chisholm boasts a .353 BA, .588 SLG and .414 wOBA.
When facing right-handed pitching since 2021, his splits jump by roughly 35% to a smooth .260 BA, .487 SLG and .810 OPS. Additionally, Chisholm is always a massive threat to swipe a bag, currently tied for fourth in the NL with seven.
Luis Arraez Hitter Fantasy Score More Than 7.5
The other Marlins hitter to back is Luis Arraez, who is putting together a monster campaign to begin 2023. Through 20 games, Arraez leads MLB with a ridiculous .444 BA while also boasting a terrific .583 SLG and 1.089 OPS.
His underlying metrics are also outstanding, ranking in the 81st percentile or higher in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and K%. This spectacular campaign is likely to continue against Morton, a guy who Arraez boasts a .400 BA, .600 SLG and .463 wOBA through six career plate appearances.
Since 2021, his splits take a roughly 21% jump when facing right-handed pitching to a .330 BA, .433 SLG and .821 OPS. Arraez has missed two games in a row with a left knee bruise and is considered day-to-day. If he is unable to go on Tuesday night, then this square is simply pushed out of the PrizePicks entry.
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