MLB Props Today | Odds, Expert Pick for Patrick Sandoval
Photo by Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Sandoval.
The weekend is here, and that means we have another glorious slate of Major League Baseball ahead of us.
While there are a boatload of player props on the board, I've found three picks — on Aaron Nola, Brady Singer and Patrick Sandoval that give us a significant edge on Saturday.
Let's break them down.
MLB Player Props For Saturday, June 10
Aaron Nola under 6.5 strikeouts (-122)
| Dodger vs. Phillies | |
| First Pitch | 4:05 pm ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Aaron Nola led the Phillies pitching staff during their World Series run last year, but those extra innings may have taken a toll. Nola has not been the same pitcher this season, and it's showing in his results.
He enters this start against the Dodgers with a 4.30 ERA and a significantly lower strikeout rate. Nola's strikeout rate has dropped nearly six percent from last season. His inability to finish hitters could be a problem against a surging L.A. lineup.
He was able to rack up strikeouts in his last start against Detroit, totaling 12 in seven innings. That, however, has not been the norm this season.
Nola has gone under this total in 10 of 13 starts this season. He is bound to regress from his last outing, as the Dodgers have also done a great job of limiting strikeouts as the season has gone along.
Pick: Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-122) |
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Brady Singer over 3.5 strikeouts (-160)
| Royals vs. Orioles | |
| First Pitch | 4:05 pm ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
Brady Singer is being vastly underrated in this matchup against the Orioles. Yes, his Baseball Savant page is bluer than the Royals uniform, but this strikeout total is just far too low.
The Orioles rank in the bottom third of the league in team strikeout rate, but their rate of 22 percent is right in line with the league average. Baltimore has nine hitters on its roster with above average strikeout rates, so Singer will have plenty of opportunities to sit them down.
Singer has proven this season — and throughout his career — that this total is too low. He has surpassed it in nine of 12 starts this season, but that only adds to a long trend.
Singer has gone over this total in 30 of his last 39 starts. That gives us implied odds of -333 that he'll go over this afternoon.
Pick: Over 3.5 strikeouts
Patrick Sandoval under 17.5 outs recorded (+115)
| Mariners vs. Angels | |
| First Pitch | 10:07 pm ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
It has been a season of ebbs and flows for Patrick Sandoval through 11 starts. Expectations were high after his breakout season in 2022, but he has not shown the same level of consistency this year.
The biggest difference is his ability to rack up strikeouts. His strikeout rate has dropped over eight percent from last season, and that decrease in swings and misses has increased his ERA.
While Sandoval has already regressed quite a bit this year, he is due for even more. He'll be up against a Seattle lineup that is due for sizable positive regression. The Mariners' xBA is 18 points higher than their current team batting average, and we should see them succeed tonight against the struggling left-hander.
Seattle's success will cause Sandoval to make an early trip to the showers, marking the seventh time he'll do so in 12 starts.
Pick: Under 17.5 outs recorded
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