MLB Prop Picks Today | Manny Machado Odds (Friday, June 23)
Pictured: Manny Machado. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
- Friday's MLB slate boasts 14 games and there's plenty of action to be found in the props market.
- Our analyst is backing Corey Seager and Manny Machado, while fading a pitcher in White Sox vs. Red Sox.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of the top prop bet picks from today's MLB slate.
Yesterday was a positive one for us as we finished 2-1 on the day. A home run derby by the Mariners in the Bronx did not help our play on Domingo German, who still finished with four strikeouts despite giving up four home runs. The Rangers will head to New York tonight. There is a possibility that the game is postponed, but if it is played, the humidity will help hitters like Corey Seager.
The Nationals will be in San Diego to face the Padres and Patrick Corbin will get the start. Corbin's starts are days many prop bettors have looked forward to over the last two seasons. Manny Machado could get to him tonight.
MLB Player Props For Friday, June 23
Corey Seager Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
|Rangers vs. Yankees|
|First Pitch||7:06 p.m. ET|
Corey Seager went hitless on Wednesday to snap his five-game hitting streak. However, that has been a rarity for him this season and he still has recorded a hit in 10 of his last 12 games. When someone is hitting .358 like Seager is, their splits will be pretty favorable in most situations.
Seager is hitting .398 at home, but he is also hitting .307 with seven doubles, three home runs, and a .889 OPS. He is hitting .365 with 16 doubles, seven home runs, and a 1.127 OPS against right-handed pitching.
Tonight, he faces Clarke Schmidt, who has been better of late but has still struggled with left-handed hitters. Against Schmidt, left-handed batters are hitting .311 with 11 doubles, five home runs and a .911 OPS.
Schmidt's struggles against left-handers make sense with his home games being played at Yankee Stadium. The short porch in right field is one reason that I am targeting Seager. He is +450 on DraftKings to hit a home run tonight.
A home run would give Seager four bases, but we just need two from him tonight. He is averaging 3.1 total bases over his last 10 games and went over in six of those games. If tonight's game goes on, I like his chances to continue that trend.
Pick: Corey Seager Over 1.5 Total Bases
Lucas Giolito Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-110)
|Red Sox vs. White Sox|
|First Pitch||8:10 p.m. ET|
Lucas Giolito has enjoyed a bounce-back season in 2023 thus far, as he is 5-4 with a 3.54 ERA. However, his xERA would indicate he has been the same pitcher over the last two seasons. He had a 4.23 xERA last season and has a 4.27 xERA this season. The analytics likely believe Giolito is a regression candidate because he gives up a lot of traffic on the bases.
Giolito has a 1.24 WHIP and has allowed 79 hits in 86 1/3 innings. He has allowed at least six hits in five of his last seven starts. For the season, he has hit this line in seven of 15 starts, and he has allowed five hits in three other starts. He will face a Red Sox lineup that is fifth in team batting average (.263) and sixth in runs scored.
Giolito has a 41.7% Hard Hit Allowed percentage, which ranks in the 36th percentile of MLB pitchers. Justin Turner, Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Durran, Triston Casas and Rafael Devers each have a Hard Hit percentage of 41.6% or better.
Every hard-hit ball off of their bats won't drop in, but let's say they each have one hit off Giolito. That's already five and we would only need one more, which could easily be an infield single.
Giolito also usually pitches six innings, and a hit per inning would clear this line.
Pick: Lucas Giolito Over 5.5 Hits Allowed
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
|Nationals vs. Padres|
|First Pitch||9:40 p.m. ET|
Yesterday, Manny Machado went 2-for-4 and hit his ninth home run of the season. The home run, a three-run shot, came off left-hander Alex Wood. Against left-handed pitchers this season, Machado is hitting .381 with four doubles, three home runs, and a 1.014 OPS.
Tonight, he gets another lefty in Patrick Corbin, against whom he has had a ton of success in his career.
Against Corbin, Machado is 7-for-18 (.389) with a double, home run, and 1.011 OPS. Corbin has struggled both on the road and against right-handed hitters. He has a 5.40 ERA in six road starts, allowing nine home runs in 33 1/3 innings. He has also allowed 12 of his 13 home runs to right-handed hitters. They are hitting .321 with 15 doubles and a .855 OPS against Corbin as well. Comparatively, he has held left-handed hitters to a .232 average and .617 OPS.
Machado is +425 on DraftKings to a hit a home run tonight, but I feel good about his chances of getting on base. He enters play riding a six-game hitting streak and has recorded a hit in nine of his last 10 games. He has two hits in each of his last two games and in four of his last 10 games. Two hits or an extra-base hit will give Machado two bases tonight.
Pick: Manny Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases