MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Shohei Ohtani, Jesus Luzardo More (Thursday, June 29)
Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Jesus Luzardo
On Tuesday night, we had a 2-1 night with one of the wins coming on Gavin Williams' strikeouts. Williams tossed seven innings of one-hit ball and held down the Royals long enough until the Guardians were able to push across across two runs in the ninth. Last night, the Guardians scored at will en route to a 14-1 victory.
Today, I am on the other side and targeting Zack Greinke as the Royals look to avoid a sweep.
The White Sox did something that many teams have struggled to do of late — keep Shohei Ohtani in the yard. However, he still had three hits, including a triple, in the Angels' 11-5 loss. The Angels will try again to complete the series victory and Ohtani will likely play a big role.
The Marlins are surging of late as they have won seven of their last 10 games, including their last four games. The Red Sox have lost four straight since Brayan Bello last took the mound. Jesus Luzardo will oppose Bello tonight and he may take advantage of the slumping Red Sox.
MLB Player Props For Thursday, June 29
Zack Greinke Over 2.5 Strikeouts (+100)
|Guardians vs. Royals|
|First Pitch||2:10 p.m. ET|
When Zack Greinke decides to call it quits, he has a spot waiting for him in Cooperstown. In his career, he has had five seasons of 200 or more strikeouts, which has helped rack up 2,943 and counting. At age 39, he is not the pitcher that he once was, evident by his 5.31 ERA. However, that does not make tonight's line any less disrespectful.
Greinke has struck out at least two batters in every start this season. He has recorded three in 14 of 16 starts, averaging 3.8 per game this season. Greinke has hit this line in each of his last eight starts and has had four or more strikeouts in six of them. Greinke has not faced the Guardians this season and they will make this over a challenge.
Cleveland ranks 29st in strikeouts percentage (19.1%) against right-handed pitchers. The Guardians do not walk or strike much and often put the ball in play. However, just five starting pitchers this month have not recorded three strikeouts against the Guardians. Tommy Henry and Wade Miley, who I would consider comparable to Greinke at this stage of his career, both had three strikeouts against the Guardians this month.
Typically when I bet strikeout props, I try to go for lines where the pitcher needs to average one per inning assuming they get five or six innings to work with. If Greinke pitches six innings, he can hit this line with a strikeout every other inning. Even with four or five innings, he should be able to get three strikeouts.
Pick: Zack Greinke Over 2.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
|White Sox vs. Angels|
|First Pitch||4:07 p.m. ET|
Shohei Ohtani has 16 home runs in his last 24 games, which has helped him surge into the league lead. It was against the White Sox that Ohtani started this stretch as he homered three times against them in Chicago. Two of those home runs (totaling 874 feet) came against today's starter, Lance Lynn. Overall, Ohtani is 10-for-21 (.476) with three home runs and five runs batted in against Lynn.
If Ohtani homers off Lynn again today, he will hit this line with four total bases on one swing. Today, we need him to get two total bases. He has hit this line in 21 of his last 30 games. More recently, he is averaging 3.8 total bases per game over his last 10 games. He is also averaging five total bases per game against the White Sox this season.
Ohtani has been hot in most situations of late, but the fact that this game has an afternoon first pitch may give him a better chance of hitting this line. In day games this season, Ohtani is hitting .398 with three doubles, three triples, 10 home runs, 29 runs batted in and a 1.255 OPS. Comparatively, he is hitting .268 with a .955 OPS in night games.
Ohtani is +240 to hit a home run on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Admittedly, those odds are not great, but also not surprising considering how hot he has been. However, another hitter I like in today's game is Luis Robert Jr., who has both been hot and destroying left-handed pitching this season. On FanDuel, it is +1631 if you parlay Ohtani and Robert for home runs, giving us a reasonable shot at an afternoon lotto.
Pick: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
Jesus Luzardo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)
|Marlins vs. Red Sox|
|First Pitch||6:10 p.m. ET|
Jesus Luzardo has recorded six strikeouts in 10 of 16 starts this season. He also has had five strikeouts in five other starts this season. His line is usually either at 6.5 or 7.5 strikeouts and he has had at least seven in six of his last eight starts. However, today he is at 5.5, presumably because of the matchup against the Red Sox.
Like the Guardians, the Red Sox do not strike out often. They rank 25th in strikeouts percentage (20.5%) against left-handed pitchers. However, lately Boston has been more vulnerable. Seven of the last 10 starters they have faced have gone over their strikeouts lines. Four of them had at least six strikeouts.
Luzardo has 103 strikeouts in 90 2/3 innings this season, giving him a 10.2 K/9 average. He also tossed seven innings of two-hit ball and struck out nine in his last start against Pittsburgh. We don't need him to be that dominant tonight, but it would not hurt. Another quality start will help him go deep and give him a chance to hit this line in six innings.
Comparatively, this line is at -130 on FanDuel.
Pick: Jesus Luzardo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)