MLB Player Props | Odds, Picks for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Tanner Bibee, Logan Webb (Saturday, August 19)
Via Ed Zurga/Getty Images. Pictured: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. #27 of the Toronto Blue Jays bats against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium on April 4, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri.
Hurricane Hilary has given us some extra baseball today, and that is never a bad thing. With that being said, there are a ton of props on the board, but I've found three that seem to have significant value.
So let's dive in and see who we're betting on and how we're betting on them in today's top MLB player props.
MLB Player Props For Saturday, August 19th
The first game of this series had a very unexpected result. The matchup had a total of 10.5 but saw just one run as the Reds walked it off in the bottom of the ninth after 8.5 scoreless innings. That may mean we are overdue for some offense in tonight's matchup, and one man who is primed to shine is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Guerrero's second half has not gone all that well as he's hitting just .233 since the All-Star break, but he has some of the most eye-popping batted ball metrics in baseball, so he is due to breakout.
Just for reference, Guerrero ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and the 96th percentile in hard-hit rate. Those metrics, along with his low strikeout rate, have given him an xBA of .301, which is among the top three percent of baseball.
Guerrero will get to face Reds' starter Brandon Williamson tonight, and Williamson could be in some trouble. He is due for some sizable regression as his xERA is nearly a full run higher than his actual ERA.
That is due to the amount of hard contact he surrenders as Williamson ranks in the 18th percentile in hard-hit rate and the 28th percentile in average exit velocity. What also helps us is that Williamson is also due to give up a few more extra-base hits as his xSLG sits in the 14th percentile.
Everything is aligned for Vlady to have a big night in Cincinnati.
Pick: Over 1.5 total bases -105
Tanner Bibee has been a revelation for the Guardians' rotation, as he comes in with a 2.90 ERA over 19 starts this season. The rookie has made an enormous impact and brings high expectations into each start.
However, the numbers show that the market may be a bit too high on him tonight. Bibee will take the mound against the Detroit Tigers, who boast the 9th highest team strikeout rate in the league but have also had many young hitters flourish over the last few weeks.
While the matchup is a tad overrated, so is the total he's expected to surpass. Bibee has gone under this total in 13 of his 19 starts this season. That gives us implied odds of -216 that he will go under tonight.
Lastly, our Action Labs projections love the line value on this under, as they have Bibee slated for 5.8 strikeouts. With all the above working against him, this is one of the top plays on the slate.
Pick: Under 6.5 Strikeouts +110
We go from one breakout pitcher to another, as it can't be understated how excellent Logan Webb has pitched this season. Webb has become a workhorse, which is rare in this day and age.
His ability to rack up ground balls has allowed him to work deep into games, but what has helped him take the leap this season is an uptick in strikeouts. Webb's strikeout rate is up nearly four percent from last season.
So while he has perhaps the toughest lineup in baseball in front of him tonight, Webb is more than prepared to go to battle, and the market is too low on him. Webb's strikeout prop is just 4.5, and that has been a number he's sailed over historically.
In fact, Webb has surpassed that number in 73.7 percent of his last 57 starts. That gives us implied odds of -279 that he will go over again tonight.
Pick: Over 4.5 Strikeouts -130