MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for J.D. Martinez, Bryce Elder & More (Saturday, July 29)
Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: J.D. Martinez (Dodgers)
This Saturday's slate looks a bit different, as many games will start at night rather than during the day.
However, that's worked to our advantage, as I've found three guys who have substantial value in the prop market.
So, let's dive in and meet them in today's top MLB player props.
MLB Player Props For Saturday, July 29
Alek Manoah Under 5.5 Strikeouts -120
|Angels vs. Blue Jays|
|First Pitch||3:07 pm ET|
While it appeared that Alek Manoah figured things out in his return to the big leagues against Detroit, he's shown immediate regression in his last two starts.
Manoah has walked nine batters over his last two starts, and those command issues are at the root of his underwhelming season.
This afternoon, he'll take on an Angels lineup that's proven to be dangerous, as L.A. ranks third in wOBACON and also has the best player on the planet in the middle of its order.
While strikeouts have been mixed in with all the hard contact the Angels have made this year, Manoah hasn't proven that he can hang around to surpass this total.
He's gone under this total in 12 of his 16 starts this season, and that feeds into a longer trend from when he was successful last season. Manoah hasn't eclipsed this total in 58.3% of his last 48 starts.
That gives us implied odds of -140 that he'll go under this afternoon.
Pick: Alek Manoah Under 5.5 Strikeouts -120
Bryce Elder Over 3.5 Strikeouts -170
|Brewers vs. Braves|
|First Pitch||7:20 pm ET|
Bryce Elder has been a savior for Braves, as he's stepped up big time. Elder comes into his 21st start of the season with a 3.30 ERA and is a few starts removed from an All-Star Game appearance.
While he's certainly not your prototypical strikeout pitcher this afternoon, he's not being given nearly enough credit in a very strong matchup. Elder will toe the slab against the Brewers, who boast the fifth highest-strikeout rate in the majors.
Elder's strikeout total is set at 3.5, and that's a number that he's crushed in his young career. He's had at least four strikeouts in 21 of his last 30 starts.
That 70% hit rate gives us implied odds of -233 that he'll go over again tonight, which gives line value to a plus matchup.
Pick: Bryce Elder Over 3.5 Strikeouts
J.D. Martinez Over 1.5 Total Bases +105
|Reds vs. Dodgers|
|First Pitch||9:10 pm ET|
J.D. Martinez has had a resurgent year for the Dodgers. The 35-year-old veteran is hitting .262 with 25 homers and is sporting a .879 OPS, which is his highest mark since 2019.
Tonight, he and the Dodgers will play host to the Reds, and Martinez will have an excellent opportunity to do damage in his first few at-bats against Luke Weaver.
Weaver has been knocked around this season, as he enters this start with a 7.20 ERA. That ugly number stems from surrendering a ton of loud contact.
Weaver ranks in the fourth percentile in xBA, the third percentile in xSLG and the seventh percentile in barrel rate. Put that up against Martinez — who ranks in the 97th percentile in hard-hit rate and xSLG — and you have a recipe for extra bases.
Back Martinez tonight.