MLB Players Props Odds & Picks for Monday: 2 Bets for Sean Manaea, Merrill Kelly

MLB Players Props Odds & Picks for Monday: 2 Bets for Sean Manaea, Merrill Kelly article feature image

Norm Hall/Getty Images. Pictured: Merrill Kelly #29 of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

  • Monday night's two pitching props come from the late games: Padres vs. Rockies and Diamondbacks vs. Giants.
  • Tanner McGrath sees value on hurlers Sean Manaea and Merrill Kelly.
  • Check out how he's betting both guys below.

Another week, another week of MLB Player Props using our Action Labs tools.

Our internal projections show value on today's starters for the San Diego Padres and the ArizonaDiamondbacks.

Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.

Sean Manaea over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)

Padres vs. RockiesPadres -155
First Pitch8:40 p.m. ET
Best LineBetRivers

All Sean Manaea does is cash this number. You can argue about his statistics until the cows come home (4.18 ERA, 3.64 xERA, 3.90 xFIP), but Manaea consistently cashes strikeout totals for his backers.

Manaea has gone over this line in …

  • 13 of 15 starts this season (87%, -650 implied odds)
  • 35 of 47 starts dating back to last season (74%, -292 implied odds)
  • 8 of 8 road starts this season (100%)
  • 19 of 23 road starts dating back to last season (83%, -475 implied odds)

Manaea strikes out around 9.4 batters per nine innings and that number jumps to 10.4 when he's on the road. His two secondary pitches (changeup and slider) both have Whiff rates over 30%.

The Rockies don't strike out too much and it's tough this game is being played at Coors Field. But when you're giving me 4.5 Ks with Manea at plus-money, the over is an auto-bet.

Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Manaea for 5.8 Ks on Monday night, while FanGraphs SaberSim projects him for 4.9. Both projections show value on this number up to around -120.

Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (+100)

Action Labs Grade: 10/10

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Merrill Kelly over 4.5 Strikeouts (-105)

Diamondbacks vs. GiantsDiamondbacks -145
First Pitch9:40 p.m. ET
Best LineDraftKings

The Giants are often heralded as an analytics-forward, smartly-run organization. They tend to find undervalued pitchers and hitters, and they find ways to compete in the top-heavy NL West.

That tune has changed this season. The Giants are just two games over .500 and 12.5 games out of first place. San Fran also finds itself two games out of the NL Wildcard race. The team is just 3-7 over its last 10.

Moreover, the Giants have been striking out at the fourth-highest rate against RHPs over the last 30 days, almost 25% of the time.

Enter Merrill Kelly.

Kelly has cashed this number in 10 of 17 starts this season and in five of his last six starts. Most recently, he managed six strikeouts in 97 pitches against the Giants last time out, managing a 30% CSW rate.

This seems to be a good matchup for him. He's managed multiple strikeouts against:

  • Brandon Crawford (4 Ks in 27 PAs)
  • Mike Yastrzemski (4 Ks in 26 PAs)
  • Brandon Belt (3 Ks in 23 PAs)
  • Lamonte Wade Jr. (2 Ks in 19 PAs)
  • Joc Pederson (2 Ks in 12 PAs)

I'll take him to go over again one more time. Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Kelly for 5.3 Ks today, providing us loads of value at this relatively cheap line.

Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-105)

Action Labs Grade: 8/10

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