The Tampa Bay Rays host the New York Yankees on April 11, 2026. First pitch from Tropicana Field is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on YES.
The Yankees are favored by -190 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Rays are +155 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find our MLB picks and Yankees vs Rays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Yankees vs Rays Prediction
- Yankees vs Rays Pick: Yankees ML (-190)
Our Yankees vs Rays best bet is on New York to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Rays Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -190 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
- Yankees vs Rays spread: Yankees -1.5 (-105), Rays +1.5 (-115)
- Yankees vs Rays over/under: 7.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Yankees vs Rays moneyline: Yankees -190, Rays +155
Yankees vs Rays Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Max Fried (NYY) | Stat | RHP Nick Martinez (TB) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | W-L | 0-0 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 1.35 / 2.51 | ERA / xERA | 2.25 / 2.94 |
| 2.80 / 4.13 | FIP / xFIP | 4.40 / 3.61 |
| 0.75 | WHIP | 0.67 |
| 12.0 | K-BB% | 13.6 |
| 42.6 | GB% | 55.6 |
| 105 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 101 | Location+ | 113 |
Yankees vs Rays Preview
The Yankees roll into Tropicana Field looking to bounce back after three straight losses.
Yesterday, the first game of this series went to the Rays 5-3, and while today's might seem like a great pitching duel on the surface, our Bet Labs research has flagged this specific contest with its "Short-Sample ERA Trap: MLB Favorite Filter" system.
This MLB system targets strong favorites like the Yankees when they face an underdog starter whose statistics are heavily skewed by a lack of volume.
The target is Tampa Bay starter Nick Martinez. Through his first two starts of the 2026 season, Martinez has been stellar, posting a 2.25 ERA and a minuscule 0.67 WHIP.
However, he has logged only 12.0 innings, which falls squarely within our system's "trap" range of 5 to 19 innings.
The model suggests the betting market is overvaluing Martinez's early-season efficiency, failing to account for the fact that a 4.13 career ERA pitcher is due for regression.
On the flip side, the Yankees come in with a verified ace in Max Fried (2-0, 1.35 ERA), making this the ideal time to strike on the favorite, as you can see in the number of bets and percentage of money coming in on this pick.
Yankees vs Rays Picks
The logic behind the "Short-Sample ERA Trap" is that elite metrics over a small number of innings often mask underlying vulnerabilities.
In Nick Martinez’s case, this strong start with the Rays offers no clear indication of an improbable improvement on the 35-year-old veteran.
Martinez just posted a 4.45 ERA and a 4.33 FIP with the Reds, and might be just benefiting from the switch to the American League.
Today, he will face a Yankees lineup that ranks sixth in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers and is still waiting for Aaron Judge and other bats to wake up.
By contrast, Max Fried isn't a mirage. He's continued his dominance as expected, after finishing fourth in votes for the Cy Young award last season.
Action PRO projects Fried for 4.9 strikeouts today.
We are backing the Yankees to capitalize on this edge.
Pick: Yankees ML (-190, BetMGM)
