Padres vs Marlins Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Expert Picks for Tuesday, May 30

Padres vs Marlins Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Expert Picks for Tuesday, May 30 article feature image

Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images. Pictured: Sandy Alcantara (Marlins)

  • The Miami Marlins begin a nine-game homestand at loanDepot Park on Tuesday night.
  • Miami hosts a disappointing San Diego Padres team that is five games below .500.
  • D.J. James breaks down Padres vs. Marlins below and explains why you should play the over despite Sandy Alcantara being on the bump.

Padres vs. Marlins Odds

Tuesday, May 30
6:40 p.m. ET
Padres Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
+100 / -120
Marlins Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
+100 / -120
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

The Miami Marlins find themselves near the top of the NL East in second place, as of Tuesday afternoon.

The San Diego Padres had lofty expectations coming into the season, and they're clinging to fourth place in the NL West.

On Tuesday, the Marlins put forth their presumptive ace, Sandy Alcántara, who won the NL Cy Young in 2022 but has had a less than ideal start to 2022.

Ryan Weathers goes for the Padres, and even though he started well this season, May hasn't been so kind to him.

Given how the Padres should eventually come to life and how the Marlins are hitting southpaws lately, this total should go over.

San Diego Padres

Weathers is a solid back-of-the-rotation arm and is surely not the reason for the lackluster results in San Diego.

He does own a 3.94 ERA against a 3.49 xERA, but in May, those numbers have climbed. He's given up eight earned runs in 11 2/3 innings pitched across two May outings.

Yes, he was facing some strong offenses, like the Dodgers and Nationals. That said, he only strikes out around 15% of hitters while walking over 9%.

The Padres have struggled against righties in May, but Alcántara hasn't been good, to put it frankly.

Over the course of the last week, San Diego has a team wRC+ of 101 against righties, with a 12.9% walk rate and .718 OPS. These aren't phenomenal numbers, but the Padres should get the job done against a starting pitcher like Alcántara.

They have five bats on the season with over a .330 xwOBA. Missing Manny Machado (IL) doesn't help, but they still have enough power to execute with runners on base.

The San Diego bullpen has a 4.02 xFIP in May with a 79.2% LOB percentage. The Padres only have three active arms under a 4.00 xFIP mark.

That means Miami should score late in the game.

Miami Marlins

Alcántara was an ace last year, but he doesn't have the best results this season. His 4.86 ERA doesn't tell the whole story since his xERA is 4.25, but neither of these numbers is encouraging.

He ranks in the 54th percentile in average exit velocity and the 37th in hard-hit rate.

In May, he isn't improving, with a 4.68 ERA in five starts.

The Marlins being above .500 without him at his best is pretty impressive.

Miami should be the main source of offense on Tuesday. The Marlins have crushed left-handed pitching lately, with a 134 wRC+ in the last week and a 121 wRC+ and .824 OPS in the month of May.

Avisaíl García and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are on the IL, but Jesús Sánchez is scheduled to return for this game. Against lefties, they have seven bats over a .320 xwOBA this season, so much of the lineup can handle Weathers.

The Marlins' relievers have made some strides in the right direction, with a 3.79 xFIP in May. How deep Alcántara can go in this game will determine the relievers used.

Still, San Diego’s best shot at scoring may come early on.

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Padres vs. Marlins Betting Pick

Neither of these starting pitchers has had a reasonable enough May to back the total going under. Alcántara doesn't have ace stuff at the moment and Weathers is starting to slide again.

The Padres and Marlins have the bats to score early and often.

Take the over at 8 (+100), and play it to 9 (-120).

Pick: Over 8 (+100) | Play to Over 9 (-120)

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