Phillies vs Padres Player Props for NLCS Game 1

Phillies vs Padres Player Props for NLCS Game 1 article feature image

Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Zack Wheeler

Nobody thought the Phillies and Padres would be in the NLCS, considering the two finished a combined 36 games back in their respective divisions.

But here we are. And maybe we should've expected that, considering both dugouts are star-studded. The pitching matchup is between Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler. Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, Juan Soto and Manny Machado will all step into the batter's box.

Let's bet on some of them through the player props market and using our Action Labs projections.

Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.

Zack Wheeler Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-137)

Phillies @ Padres
First Pitch8:03 p.m. ET
Best LineBetRivers

Zack Wheeler provides more length than almost any pitcher in the game. He had some trouble with injuries this season that limited his total innings, but his statistics barely took a hit.

Either way, Wheeler is once again showing his length in the playoffs. He's pitched over six innings in both of his playoff starts and allowed just eight baserunners in the process.

Zack Wheeler just 50 pitches thru 5 scoreless

Has given up just 1 hit

— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) October 13, 2022

Wheeler can create plenty of strikeout opportunities when he's pitching this well.

Wheeler managed only four strikeouts against the Cardinals and five against the Braves. But now that the Phillies have entered a best-of-seven series, they need him to pitch as many innings and strike out as many batters as possible.

Wheeler has faced the Padres twice since the beginning of last year and thoroughly dominated them. He tossed seven innings, allowed zero runs and struck out nine in both starts.

Plus, neither of those matchups included Soto. This is, surprisingly, a good thing for Wheeler's strikeout numbers. Wheeler has struck out Soto 10 times in 48 ABs with a 25.9% whiff rate.

Other notable matchups for Wheeler today include:

  • vs. Josh Bell: 27 PA, 8 H, 1 BB, 22.6% Whiff, 5 K
  • vs Wil Myers: 7 PA, 1 H, 0 BB, 36.4% Whiff, 3 K
  • vs Trent Grisham: 5 PA, 0 H, 0 BB, 16.7% Whiff, 3 K

Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Wheeler for 5.3 strikeouts today, while both FanGraphs and Stokastic project Wheeler over five strikeouts as well. This is a good play.

Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-137)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10

Yu Darvish Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)

Phillies @ Padres
First Pitch8:03 p.m. ET
Best LineDraftKings

If Yu Darvish can go into Los Angeles and strike out seven Dodgers over five innings, he can host the Phillies at home and strike out six. Especially when, again, the Padres can use his length in a best-of-seven series.

Five guys in Philly's regular nine-man lineup have strikeout rates of over 20%. Darvish has faced these Phillies seven times and struck out at least five in every start.

Darvish has also regularly dominated the Phillies.

The Phillies roster has a combined .572 career OPS vs G1 starter Yu Darvish. Rhys has best track record, reaching base 8x in 18 PA with 3 XBH (via @Stathead )

— Mike Lynch (@SportInfo247) October 17, 2022

Darvish hosted the Phillies at PetCo Park in late June and struck out nine over just six innings. He can do that again.

I think we sometimes overlook Darvish's strikeout stuff. His top three pitches have whiff rates north of 21.5%, while his splitter has a 40% whiff rate. Darvish can mix and match pitches as effectively as any guy in the league, which generally leads to strikeouts.

Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Darvish for 5.9 strikeouts today, while both FanGraphs and Stokastic mark him over six. There's value in Darvish today.

Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (-105)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10

Also Under Consideration

  • Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130 at DraftKings)
  • Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120 at DraftKings)
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