MLB Betting Odds | Phillies vs Yankees Pick, Prediction

MLB Betting Odds | Phillies vs Yankees Pick, Prediction article feature image

Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge (left), Giancarlo Stanton (right).

  • The Yankees host the Phillies in Monday night’s series opener at Yankee Stadium.
  • Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and the Yanks enter this game on a homer tear; they’ll look to keep rolling with Nestor Cortes on the mound.
  • Continue reading for Kenny Ducey’s Phillies vs. Yankees betting preview and pick.

Phillies vs. Yankees Odds

Monday, April 3
7:05 PM
Phillies Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-105 / -115
Yankees Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-105 / -115
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Phillies are still seeking their first win of 2023 after going down to Texas and getting shellacked by the Rangers in a three-game sweep to open the season. Things aren't going to get much easier on Monday night at Yankee Stadium.

The Yankees offense already looks considerably better than where it was at the end of last season, and with they're pitching, it's possible that Philly leaves this series winless.

Let's get into this matchup in our Phillies vs. Yankees betting preview and prediction.

Philadelphia Phillies

The season started on such a positive note for the Phillies. They opened up a huge lead on Jacob deGrom on Opening Day only to see Aaron Nola cough up the lead and hand things over to Philly's lackluster bullpen. The offense never returned to the level we saw early on Thursday, with just five runs in the last 22 innings.

If there's one positive, it's probably that the Phillies have had at least nine hits in each of their first three games and just 15 strikeouts over the last two. The issue has been situational hitting, with the team going 3-for-17 over the last two. Perhaps luck will turn around.

Speaking of luck, Taijuan Walker is pitching here for the Phillies. His ERA has come in below his xERA for six straight seasons, with most differentials being pretty substantial. Last season, though, was arguably the best we've seen in some time out of the former top-10 prospect — he brought his walk rate down to 6.9% — his lowest since 2016 — and took his barrel rate back down under league average.

He's still not going to strike many guys out, but Walker pitched a bit better to contact last season. With that said, those numbers were better than they were in 2021, but still firmly below average.

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New York Yankees

The story couldn't be any different for the Yankees. They've scored at least five runs in all of their games and enter 2-1 with just the one loss on Saturday, when the winning run was left stranded in the bottom of the ninth.

The Yankees may rank just 10th in wRC+ after opening weekend, but they've hit a commanding seven home runs, which is tied for first in the league. Something a bit concerning is the fact that they're down around the middle of the league in walks after leading the way in that department for the better part of three years. They're fifth in strikeout rate, which is no surprise. The three true outcome kings are lacking in one important department, and as a result, have a measly .327 on-base percentage.

On top of that, Nestor Cortes is making his much-anticipated season debut. For parts of 2022 he was the Yankees' best pitcher, throwing 158 1/3 innings and recording just a 2.44 ERA with a 2.70 xERA, which put him in the top 10% of all pitchers. He typically keeps runners off the basepaths with an excellent 6.2% walk rate and great contact numbers, so things might be difficult for the Phillies.

Phillies vs. Yankees Betting Pick

I think there are valid reasons to be encouraged by the Phillies' start to the season despite three straight losses, but pitching isn't really one of them. Things really shouldn't improve against the Yankees here.

While the Yankees aren't walking and are striking out a ton, they couldn't ask for a better matchup. Walker is a guy who issues far too many free passes — even if things got slightly better last year — and he pitches to contact so New York shouldn't strike out as much. When hitters do make contact, it's often quite loud.

Cortes hasn't pitched much this spring, but he does match up very well against the Phillies. I'll back him to get the Yankees out in front.

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