Pirates vs Giants Odds, Picks | MLB Betting Guide
Pictured: Mitch Keller. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)
- The Giants host the Pirates on Wednesday afternoon.
- Tony Sartori has dug into this matchup and has his eyes on a player prop.
- Continue reading to see why Sartori is backing Mitch Keller as he details his Pirates vs. Giants best bet below.
Pirates vs. Giants Odds
This matchup is the third of six meetings between these clubs this season. Will San Francisco defend its home diamond, or can Pittsburgh pull off the road upset?
Here's a look at the odds, as well as my Pirates vs. Giants betting pick.
Right-hander Mitch Keller takes the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates and should be a tremendous candidate to back in this contest. The 27-year-old is putting together a breakout campaign and is 6-1 with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP through 11 starts.
Based on his underlying metrics, these are not fluky results. Keller ranks in the 80th percentile or higher in Average Exit Velocity, Hard-Hit%, xERA/xwOBA, K% and BB%.
The right hander has really increased his ability to retire hitters via strikeout this season and boasts a dominant 30.5 K%. With a six-pitch arsenal, Keller does a tremendous job of mixing up his stuff to keep opposing hitters off balance. In fact, he doesn't throw a single one of those pitches more than 25% of the time.
The San Francisco Giants' near-.500 record is a perfect embodiment of this team. They're solid at everything, but exceptional at nothing. They can win games and compete, but there are a lot of gaps in this roster, especially in the hitting department.
The Giants rank in the bottom half of the league in hits per game, BA and OBP. They also swing and miss at a high rate.
San Francisco ranks third-to-last in the league in K% when facing right-handed pitchers. Looking at Wednesday's projected starting lineup, the strikeout could continue to be an issue as seven of the nine hitters possess a strikeout rate north of 21% this season.
Pirates vs. Giants Betting Pick
You can back Keller to record seven or more strikeouts at +122 via FanDuel, which is the avenue I'll take in this game. The right-hander has recorded at least eight strikeouts in each of his past six starts, a trend likely to continue against a strikeout-prone San Francisco lineup.
Through three career starts against the Giants, Keller has recorded at least seven strikeouts twice. While San Francisco has had a lot of roster turnover since those outings, the current roster possesses a lifetime 31.8 K% and a 23.1 Whiff% against the former second-round draft pick.
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