The Baltimore Orioles host the Pittsburgh Pirates on September 11, 2025. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
Find my MLB betting preview and Pirates vs Orioles prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Pirates vs Orioles Prediction
- Pirates vs Orioles pick: Pirates ML (play to +105)
My Pirates vs Orioles best bet is on the Pirates moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Orioles Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | +125 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -150 |
Pirates vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Johan Oviedo (PIT) | Stat | LHP Cade Povich (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | W-L | 3-7 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 2.70 / 2.64 | ERA / xERA | 5.16 / 5.77 |
| 3.99 / 4.48 | FIP / xFIP | 4.29 / 3.91 |
| 1.10 | WHIP | 1.46 |
| 2.2 | K-BB% | 2.9 |
| 32.6 | GB% | 40.5 |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 97 | Location+ | 100 |
Sean Paul’s Pirates vs Orioles Preview
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Fade Povich and the O's Offense
Cade Povich continues to show he might not live up to his lofty prospect potential. He sports a 5.16 ERA, a 5.77 xERA, and a 4.29 FIP. Povich is a soft-tossing lefty with a big looping curveball, which helps him get to a 9.66 K/9.
On the flip side, Povich walks more than three batters per nine. Between the strikeouts and walks, he doesn't usually pitch more than five innings — six at absolute most. He's walked multiple batters in four of his last six outings. That could be a problem in this matchup.
Povich hasn't fared well lately, allowing 3+ runs in four of his past six outings, and 4+ runs in half of those. He's definitely a pitcher to fade.
The Orioles' offense got hot for a bit, but has since tailed off. They rank 19th with a 100 wRC+ in the past three weeks, with a 27.1% strikeout rate. Baltimore is 20th with a .239 average and 16th with 22 homers over that span. Nothing about the Orioles' offense is spectacular.
Moreover, the only "star" Baltimore has is Gunnar Henderson. The only caveat is he isn't playing like a star, posting a 64 wRC+ in his past 18 games. He's what makes or breaks Baltimore's offense — and he's breaking it.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview: Oviedo's Hot Start is Legit
Johan Oviedo has been a revelation for a Pirates team looking to find rotation help after Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller.
Following a long layoff after undergoing Tommy John surgery, Oviedo has found a nice landing spot on Pittsburgh's staff. He boasts a 2.70 ERA in 20 innings over five starts. He's kept a lot of his fate in his hands, striking out 10.80 per nine, but also walks a troubling 4.95 batters per nine. Opponents have had trouble hitting Oviedo, as they bat .159 against him.
I think he might just be legit. Nothing about his hot start seems very luck-related — he has a 2.63 xERA and a .168 xBA. The concerns would arise if Oviedo were getting hit hard, but he's not. Opponents have a 4.3% barrel rate versus the imposing, 6-6, 275-pound Oviedo.
He'll need to hone in on the walk issues against a Baltimore offense that's walking better than 9% of the time.
The Pirates' offense is very similar to the Orioles. Pittsburgh ranks 20th in wRC+ since August 20th, but it has a 10.6% walk rate over that span. The ability to draw walks should play well against Povich.
However, the season-long power woes persist, as the Pirates have the second-fewest homers over that span, coupled with an .148 isolated power. If the Pirates can get to Povich, they'll need to use an old-school approach to put runs on the board.
Pirates vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
Each of the first two games in this series was evenly matched. The Orioles ultimately took both games in extra innings, but the Pirates hung in with the home team.
If you think about that and the huge pitching advantage the Pirates have, I can't get there with the Orioles entering as -160 favorites.
I'm all in on Oviedo right now and see some pretty real value in the Pirates as a +135 dog. I'd play them at any plus money price.
Pick: Pirates ML (play to +105)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I like the Pirates ML
Run Line (Spread)
I have no play here.
Over/Under
I'm not interested in the total for this game.
Pirates vs Orioles Betting Trends
