The Milwaukee Brewers host the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 23, 2025. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
Read our Pirates vs Brewers prediction and MLB pick below.
My Pirates vs Brewers Prediction
- Pirates vs Brewers Picks: Over 8.5 (-110, BetMGM | Play to -115)
My Pirates vs Brewers best bet is on the Over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Brewers Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -145 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -180 |
Pirates vs Brewers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) | Stat | RHP Chad Patrick (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | W-L | 3-7 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.7 |
| 1.54 / 3.48 | ERA / xERA | 3.50 / 4.03 |
| 2.90 / 4.41 | FIP / xFIP | 3.60 / 4.21 |
| 1.29 | WHIP | 1.28 |
| 8.2% | K-BB% | 14.8% |
| 51.5% | GB% | 27.2% |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 96 | Location+ | 98 |
Sean Zerillo’s Pirates vs Brewers Preview
While the dome is expected to be closed in Milwaukee, the Brewers still tend to leave the sides open. As a result, the projected hot temperatures (95 degrees) and cross-field winds (toward left field) should still have a positive impact on the hitting environment.
The Brewers' bullpen is in bad shape for Monday’s matchup. They played a crazy game on Sunday against the Twins (17 runs, 35 hits, blew a 9-3 lead) and had to pull the starting pitcher early, so they used many of their highest-leverage relievers for the second time in the past three games.
I like starting pitcher Chad Patrick, but his pitch modeling metrics are significantly higher than his performance this season, and he’s starting to slow down, experiencing negative regression in June (16 IP, 17 H, 10 R, 19 K, 8 BB).
The Brewers need length today, so the vulnerable Patrick should go three times through the order, which is where he gets in trouble.
The Pirates' bullpen is also a tad banged up, and Milwaukee’s offense is white hot (43 runs across the past four games, second among MLB lineups in wRC+ over the past two weeks).
Ultimately, I project 9.1 runs for this game and would bet the Over 8.5 at -115 or better.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110, BetMGM | Play to -115)
