PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop Pick: Fade Dodgers’ Bobby Miller (Friday, July 28)

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Bobby Miller Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-122)

Across Major League Baseball, there's been an influx of young, power starting pitchers who’ve made their big league debuts this season.

Among them is the Dodgers’ Bobby Miller.

Despite having acquitted himself well so far this season, I’ll be on the under of Miller’s strikeout line tonight.

Miller has remained under 6.5 punchouts in seven of his 10 starts. Despite being a strikeout pitcher in the minors, his swing-and-miss arsenal has yet to translate as such in the major leagues. Miller’s whiff rate ranks in the 44th percentile thus far, and he’s only topped 12 swinging strikes in two of his starts this season.

Miller will be pitted against the upstart Reds lineup. Even with a higher strikeout rate of late (25% over the last 30 days against righties), they’ve held 15 of the last 19 right-handed starters under seven strikeouts.

Plus, this matchup could provide a bump for Cincinnati’s hitters. Miller is reliant on his fastballs (both his four-seamer and sinker); he throws them a combined 48% of the time, with 52% of plate appearances ending with either pitch. The Reds rank within the top nine of wRC per 100 pitches against fastballs and sinkers.

In what should be a fun matchup between the NL powerhouse Dodgers and the upstart Reds, I have Miller projected at 5.8 strikeouts.

I’d play this line to -145.

Pick: Bobby Miller Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-122) | Play to -145