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Rockies vs Cubs MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Colorado Pull Off Road Upset at Wrigley? (Friday, September 16)

Rockies vs Cubs MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Colorado Pull Off Road Upset at Wrigley? (Friday, September 16) article feature image
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Michael Reaves/Getty Image. Pictured: Charlie Blackmon and Ryan McMahon

Rockies vs. Cubs Odds

Rockies Odds +122
Cubs Odds -144
Over/Under 8.5
Time 2:20 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Chicago Cubs return home Friday afternoon looking to build on a shocking three-game sweep at Citi Field in which the Cubs masterfully played the role of spoiler.

The Cubs are a rare favorite Friday in a matchup pitting Marcus Stroman against German Marquez and the Colorado Rockies.

Will Chicago follow up it’s excellent performance against the Mets with a win Friday?

Rockies’ Marquez Solid On Road

Marquez has offered night-and-day results on the road versus at Coors Field this season, and that trend has held true of late.

Marquez has pitched to a very solid ERA of 3.58 on the road, with a WHIP of just 1.18 throughout 75 1/3 innings, while at hitter-friendly Coors he has managed an ERA of 6.78 with a WHIP of 1.58.

Over Marquez’s last five road starts those marks have even improved, with an ERA of 3.00, while managing to go six or more innings in each contest while allowing three ER or less.

Altogether on the road this season, Marquez holds an xFIP of 4.49, and while I am not trying to make the case Marquez is any sort of elite starter, I do believe he is likely undervalued altogether based upon how awful things have been at Coors.

Offensively, the Rockies have hit to a wRC+ of 92 over the last 14 days with a wOBA of .330, and similar to their opponent Friday, they seem to be playing out the slate of a lost season respectably with a 6-4 record over their last 10.

Cubs’ Stroman Struggles At Home

Similar to Marquez, Stroman has offered night-and-day splits looking towards his home and road results this season.

Stroman has pitched to a disastrous ERA of 7.11 throughout 44 1/3 innings at home this season, and even if some of those outings have come on hitter-friendly days at Wrigley, that number is still quite eye opening.

On the season, Stroman owns an xERA of 4.16 while his QOPA has dipped to 4.08, and it seems very reasonable to rate Stroman as a below-average starter at this point in his career.

You can feel there is some positivity around David Ross’s Cubs for the time being, but it still seems unlikely to expect the kind of results at the plate we saw earlier in the week against the Mets moving forward.

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Rockies-Cubs Pick

Marquez has continued to pitch to far better results away from Coors Field, where all of the flaws from his game are greatly exaggerated.

The wind will likely be blowing out somewhere around 9 mph for this contest and will offer favorable hitting conditions, but should still leave Marquez in a far better environment to succeed.

Stroman’s results at Wrigley have been disastrous this season, and I think it’s far to say that the Cubs are not holding the starting pitching edge it may seem on first glance in this spot.

And while the Cubs’ sweep in New York was impressive, these teams have still hit to very comparable numbers over the last 14 days, and over the entirety of the season.

Considering those factors I believe +122 is a good price to back Marquez and the Rockies to manage a win Friday afternoon.

Pick: Colorado Rockies +122 (Play to +115)

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