Tigers vs. Blue Jays MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Why Alek Manoah and the Toronto Bats Will Stay Hot (Friday, July 29)
Mark Blinch/Getty Images. Pictured: Alek Manoah
- The Jays host the Tigers as heavy home favorites on Friday night.
- Toronto has a significant starting pitching advantage with Alek Manoah taking the mound while looking for his 12th win of the season.
- Nicholas Martin breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.
Tigers vs. Blue Jays Odds
|Blue Jays Odds||-405|
|Time||7:07 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Alek Manoah will look to record his 12th win of the season Friday as he gets the start against the lowly Tigers in a matchup versus call-up Bryan Garcia.
The starting pitching disparity between the two has Toronto priced as one of the biggest favorites of the MLB season to date, with the Jays being listed as high as -405.
Is there any way to find value backing the Jays as such heavy favorites?
Can Garcia and the Tigers Pull the Huge Upset?
Detroit’s offense has remained in poor form over the last 30 days, even if a 0.31 BB/K Rate and a wRC+ of 82 are both notable improvements from earlier points in the year.
The starting pitching situation has not been any better, and the recently recalled Garcia is set to become the Tigers’ 15th starter of the season Friday night.
Garcia has pitched to a FIP of 4.87 with a K-Rate of 17.6% and a WHIP of 1.44 over 40 innings in Triple-A this season. He will look to bounce back after struggling mightily in the MLB last season to an xERA of 8.36.
Manoah and the Blue Jays Are Surging
With back-to-back wins over Boston and Kansas City, Manoah’s career record now sits at 20-6 overall and 11-4 in 2022. A pitcher’s record is obviously somewhat of an irrelevant stat in this day as it holds some obvious flaws, but Manoah having recorded quality starts in 16 of 19 outings is undoubtedly impressive.
He has pitched to an xERA of 2.99, which is not overly surprising considering his strong K/BB Ratio of 4.40. He has also limited hard contact allowed to a solid 28.1%.
Finding consecutive wins also isn’t overly surprising considering the way Toronto has crushed the ball of late. The Jays have averaged 7.5 runs per game since naming John Schneider manager, with the top wRC+ in the league at 153.
Toronto has been the second-most productive team in the league versus right-handed pitching this season, with a 117 wRC+ and .339 wOBA. The Jays should be well positioned to build on those numbers Friday against Garcia.
Tigers-Blue Jays Pick
With Toronto listed as one of the biggest favorites of the season Friday at around -400, we’ll get creative to find some value on this contest or look for the Tigers to pull off a shocker.
I’ll bank on a strong Manoah start and a reasonable offensive output from the Jays in this one.
Manoah has collected wins at a ridiculous rate early in his young career. This has been a function of both how powerful this Jays offense has been and that he is tremendous at scrapping his way through five or more innings in the majority of starts.
Toronto should find some solid offensive support early against Garcia and hand Manoah the lead needed to collect a win.
A same-game parlay of Manoah to record a win and the Jays Team Total to go Over 3.5 is currently priced at -120 on bet365, and if you are using a book with the option to make that play, I would back that down to -125.
Pick: Alek Manoah to Record a Win + Jays Team Total Over 3.5 -120 (Play to -125)