The New York Mets host the Washington Nationals on August 14, 2026. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on WPIX.
The Nationals are favored by -118 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Nationals are +102 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Nationals vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Nationals vs Mets Prediction
- Nationals vs Mets Pick: Andrew Alvarez to Record a Win
My Nationals vs Mets best bet is a prop pick on Washington's Starting Pitcher. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Mets Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +102 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -118 |
- Nationals vs Mets moneyline: Nationals +102, Mets -118
- Nationals vs Mets over/under: 8.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Nationals vs Mets spread: Nationals -1.5 (+162), Mets -1.5 (+162)
Nationals vs Mets Probable Pitchers
| LHP Andrew Alvarez (WSN) | Stat | RHP Robert Stock (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | W-L | 0-2 |
| 1.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.0 |
| 3.76 / 4.34 | ERA / xERA | 10.13 / 5.96 |
| 3.09 / 3.77 | FIP / xFIP | 4.96 / 5.23 |
| 11.1% | K-BB% | 7.3% |
| 51.8% | GB% | 34.6% |
| .325 | BABIP | .423 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 86 |
| 99 | Location+ | 105 |
Nationals vs Mets MLB Betting Preview, Analysis
by Derek Carty
If you’re hunting for value on today's board, Andrew Alvarez To Record A Win (+286 at DraftKings) offers the best odds available. My projections support taking this prop down to +237, giving us a solid edge over market pricing.
The main knock on Alvarez is always workload: Is he going to pitch deep enough to complete five innings and qualify for the win? There have certainly been starts where he’s thrown the ball well only to get yanked early. However, that length concern is fully baked into my model, and the projection still strongly favors his chances of getting the decision here.
First off, Alvarez is simply a solid pitcher. The THE BAT X tags him with a context-neutral ERA under 4.00, which holds significant weight in today’s run environment. Second, he gets a prime matchup against Robert Stock of the Mets. I love Stock as a person — he’s an active, fantastic voice in the baseball analytics community on X/Twitter — but he struggles to get big-league hitters out consistently.
I expect the Nationals' offense to jump on Stock early, stake Alvarez to a lead, and leave it up to the left-hander to hold it through the fifth inning.
Pick: Andrew Alvarez To Record a Win
