Anthony Hernandez vs. Josh Fremd Odds, UFC 273 Pick & Prediction: Is the Favorite in Trouble? (Saturday, April 9)

Anthony Hernandez vs. Josh Fremd Odds, UFC 273 Pick & Prediction: Is the Favorite in Trouble? (Saturday, April 9) article feature image

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC figher Anthony Hernandez.

  • Anthony Hernandez will face off against newcomer Josh Fremd at UFC 273 in a fight that was moved into a primetime spot after an injury shakeup.
  • Fremd has seen his odd fall over the past week despite his inexperience at the UFC level. Is this a good spot to back him?
  • Billy Ward previews how to bet this matchup below.

Editor's Note: The Hernandez vs. Fremd fight has been moved up due to the Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Marcin Tybura cancelation.

Anthony Hernandez vs. Josh Fremd Odds

Hernandez Odds-180
Fremd Odds+155
Over/Under1.5 (+115/-145)
VenueVyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, Fla.
TimeApprox. 9 p.m. ET
Odds as of Satruday and via Caesars.

The game of Middleweight musical chairs seems to have stopped at UFC 273, with Anthony "Fluffy" Hernandez matched up with UFC debutant Josh Fremd.

While it's a somewhat short-notice bout for Fremd, Hernandez wasn't on the card originally either. Both men will be looking to make an impression on one of the company's biggest cards.

Will Hernandez bring his UFC record back above .500, or will Fremd debut with a bang? Below, we will break it all down from a betting standpoint.

Tale of the Tape

Record8-2 (1 NC)9-2
Avg. Fight Time4:480:00
Weight (pounds)186 lbs.185.5 lbs.
Reach (inches)75"76"
Date of birth10/18/931/15/94
Sig Strikes Per Min4.920.00
SS Accuracy55%0%
SS Absorbed Per Min5.090.00
SS Defense47%0%
Take Down Avg3.760.00
TD Acc66%0%
TD Def70%0%
Submission Avg1.90.0

Hernandez has alternated wins and losses in his UFC career, most recently submitting Rodolfo Viera with a guillotine. He's at his best when he's able to turn fights into grappling matches, with six of his professional (and both of his UFC) wins coming by submission.

His striking leaves something to be desired — he throws with below average volume and accuracy. Defensively, he absorbs a lot of shots while hunting takedowns, and was dispatched fairly quickly by Kevin Holland with a knee to the body.

He's also fairly small for the weight class, which could come into play here. His reach is fine, but he's a fairly slender 6-footer who looks as if he could probably make welterweight. In fact, his build is similar to Holland's (but shorter) who has recently made the drop.

It's a bit harder to analyze Fremd due to his lack of UFC appearances. However, his closest comparison might just be Holland. The 6-foot-4 Fremd is a well rounded fighter, with a solid mix of knockout and submission victories on his record.

From the tape I've seen, he has above-average power, and looks comfortable in striking exchanges. His strength seems to be when fights hit the mat though. While his offensive wrestling leaves something to be desired, he's very solid on the ground.

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Hernandez vs. Fremd Pick

This sets up as a tough bout for Hernandez stylistically. His original opponent (Dricus Du Plessis) was pretty clearly a better striker but inferior grappler to Hernandez. With Fremd though, it's hard to see a clear advantage for Hernandez in any facet — save for maybe wrestling.

The beauty of wrestling in MMA is that it allows you to dictate where the fight takes place. However, that doesn't do you much good when you're at a deficit both standing and on the ground. While it's not clear that Fremd is the better grappler, that's where my current lean is.

Fremd is pretty clearly the superior striker though, and his size advantage should allow him to keep things at a solid distance. Look for this fight to play out similar to the (brief) Hernandez-Holland bout, with Hernandez trying to walk down the taller fighter but having his striking defense tested.

Hernandez is getting respect from the betting markets as the more accomplished UFC fighter, but this fight should be closer to a pick 'em. If Fremd were coming in as an emergency replacement, I'd say the line is about right.

That's not the case though, he'd already earned a UFC contract before stepping up to this bout. Fremd +170 at Caesars is the pick, with Fremd by knockout at +300 having some appeal as well.

The Pick: Josh Fremd +170 (Caesars)

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