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Kyle Daukaus vs. Jamie Pickett UFC Odds, Pick & Prediction: How To Bet the Heavy Favorite (Saturday, February 19)

Kyle Daukaus vs. Jamie Pickett UFC Odds, Pick & Prediction: How To Bet the Heavy Favorite (Saturday, February 19) article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Kyle Daukaus.

  • Kyle Daukaus and Jamie Picket fight in Saturday's UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas.
  • Daukaus is a sizable -300 favorite in the 195-pound Catchweight bout.
  • Erich Richter breaks down the betting value in this fight, below.

Kyle Daukaus vs. Jamie Pickett Odds

Daukaus Odds -300
Pickett Odds +235
Over/Under 2.5 (-175/ +145)
Venue UFC APEX
Time Approx. 8:30 p.m. ET
Channel ESPN+
Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings.

The co-main event for this weekend’s UFC card should be plenty interesting. Kyle Daukaus vs. Jamie Pickett will take place at a 195-pound Catchweight. Typically, these two opponents fight at Middleweight (185lbs). Daukaus is a sizeable -300 favorite this Saturday.

Both fighters profile as large for a normal middleweight. Daukaus’ (10-2) two losses in the UFC came against quality opponents, in Brendan Allen and Phil Hawes.

Pickett has four losses between the UFC and Contender Series. However, he has rattled off two straight decision wins. The question to answer is if Pickett’s recent win streak is more about his competition level or a legitimate improvement? Below, I breakdown the UFC Vegas 48 co-main event …

Tale of the Tape

Daukaus Pickett
Record 10-2 (1 NC) 13-6
Avg. Fight Time 12:45 10:13
Height 6’3″ 6’2″
Weight (pounds) 193 lbs. 194 lbs.
Reach (inches) 76″ 80″
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Date of birth 2/27/93 8/29/88
Sig Strikes Per Min 3.19 3.02
SS Accuracy 53% 50%
SS Absorbed Per Min 2.61 4.17
SS Defense 40% 46%
Take Down Avg 1.88 1.68
TD Acc 27% 50%
TD Def 85% 68%
Submission Avg 1.9 0.2

Pickett’s two wins are against Richard Holmes in his UFC debut and against Laureano Staropoli. It is entirely possible that neither fighter returns to the UFC roster.

Pickett’s striking is the biggest concern in his game. Pickett has been outstruck on the feet against nearly every opponent he has faced, win or lose. He even has a negative striking differential (-1.15 per UFC Stats), meaning he gets hit more than he lands.

Daukaus is going to absolutely annihilate him on the feet if Pickett isn’t able to get him to the ground.

Even if he does, Daukaus is an excellent grappler as showcased in his fight against Allen. So far, the only one to have legitimate success grappling against Daukaus is the 197-pound junior-college national champion wrestler, Phil Hawes.

Daukaus has a solid 85% takedown defense rate in his five fights. He appears to have an excellent front headlock game which would bring tons of issues to Pickett if he gets caught in that.

Pickett does have a massive reach at 80 inches, and best chance to win is to stay away from the clinch and land combinations on the outside. This is not something that we have seen from him in the past.

In fact, Pickett was actually losing the first round against Holmes who clearly gassed out in the second and third rounds. It is extremely unlikely that Pickett is gifted cardio problems against Daukaus.

Daukaus typically comes forward in the later rounds. According to MMADecisions.com, the judges and media consistently vote for Daukaus in the second and third rounds. Pickett’s best chances to win will be by landing early takedowns and combinations.

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Daukaus vs. Pickett Pick

Daukaus has never been finished in his career and has all eight of his wins by finish coming by submission. Daukaus clearly prefers a brabo or D’arce choke to end fights.

Moreover, Daukaus would have had a submission win against Kevin Holland if not for an accidental clash of heads making the fight a no-contest.

Oddsmakers are expecting Daukaus to win this fight by decision (+145, 40.82% implied). However, I am expecting Daukaus to get his first finish win in the UFC.

Currently, Daukaus to win this fight by submission is +300 on FanDuel. As Daukaus’ volume takes over, Pickett could wildly shoot for a takedown and get caught in a compromising position.

Daukaus’ submission prop is worth a bet down to +260 before taking a stab at his inside-the-distance prop. FanDuel is also offering an excellent boost for this weekend’s fight. Daukaus to win inside the distance is boosted from +180 to +220.

This is one of the best UFC boosts of the weekend and is worth a bet too (max $50 for the boost).

Back Daukaus to win this fight with his moneyline working as a solid parlay builder as well.

The Pick: Daukaus wins by submission +300 | Daukaus ITD (Boosted from +180 to +220 (FanDuel))

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