Modestas Bukauskas vs. Paul Craig Odds
| Bukauskas Odds | -325 |
| Craig Odds | +260 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-145/+114) |
| Location | Accor Arena, Paris, France |
| Bout Time | 4:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Paris odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Paris with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Modestas Bukauskas vs. Paul Craig prediction for UFC Paris on Saturday, September 6, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Modestas Bukauskas is riding a three-fight winning streak heading into this dangerous test against veteran Paul Craig. Craig presents a unique challenge for anybody, given his ability to capitalize on one mistake from his opponent. It’s no coincidence that Craig has pulled several victories out from the jaws of defeat when things seem like they are not going his way, but I don’t believe it’s a sound betting strategy to expect that on Saturday.
Here's my Bukauskas vs. Craig pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Bukauskas | Craig | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-6 | 17-9-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:36 | 8:10 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78" | 76" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/10/1994 | 11/27/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.26 | 2.54 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 45% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.07 | 3.00 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 43% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.31 | 1.47 |
| TD Acc | 66% | 19% |
| TD Def | 77% | 35% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 1.4 |
Bukauskas was cut from the UFC in 2021, but has returned in much better form and seems to be peaking at just 31 years of age. His opponents during his second UFC stint haven’t exactly been contenders by any stretch, but he is winning the fights he is supposed to win. This fight against Craig falls into that category.
Craig is a dangerous submission artist, but there are many factors that lead me to believe Bukauskas will not find himself in a precarious situation during this fight on Saturday.
His split-decision victory over Ion Cutelaba may have been controversial to some, but it shouldn’t be. While stats aren't everything, they show that Bukauskas out-landed Cutelaba on significant head strikes 37 to 18. Most importantly, Bukauskas stuffed all four of Cutelaba’s takedown attempts.
Historically, Cutelaba has been a solid wrestler for the division, having been successful on 49% of all his takedown attempts during his UFC tenure. Compare that to Paul Craig’s abysmal takedown accuracy of just 19%.
Craig and Bukauskas are nearly identical in size, both men having an impressive 76 inch reach. However, only man actually uses that trait to their advantage on the feet. Not only will Craig struggle to get this fight to the mat if he attempts to do so, but Bukauskas is quite skilled at using his length to his advantage.
I do not consider Bukauskas a particularly powerful striker ,with just two T/KO wins over the last five years. His technical prowess gives him the option to stay out of harm's way by landing strikes and using footwork to maintain the distance between himself and his opponents. Craig does not possess the striking capabilities to surprise Bukauskas or to land significant damage that would alter such a game plan.
I expect a very slow start for the favorite here given the attention he needs to pay shucking off the initial takedown attempt or two. Bukauskas will be aware of the dangers Craig presents on the ground and should avoid them at all costs. Even if he lands something to put Craig down, he should not follow him to the mat under any circumstance.
It's also worth noting Bukaukas has just one submission loss in his entire MMA career, and that was all the way back in 2016.
Bukauskas vs. Craig Pick, Prediction
The 77% takedown defense of Bukauskas gives him a distinct edge in determining how and where this bout plays out.
The majority of this fight will take place at kickboxing range, which does not bode well for the underdog Craig. Craig’s durability at age 38 is definitely a concern for this specific angle I am playing, but I expect Bukauskas to prioritize distance management en route to a unanimous decision.
John's Pick: Modestas Bukauskas by Decision +300 (DraftKings)
