Reinier de Ridder vs. Bo Nickal Odds, Prediction
| de Ridder Odds | +300 |
| Nickal Odds | -380 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 Rounds (-105/-125) |
| Location | Wells Fargo Arena | Des Moines, Iowa |
| Bout Time | 12:15 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Des Moines odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC Des Moines with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Reinier de Ridder vs. Bo Nickal predictions, picks and odds for UFC Des Moines on Saturday, May 3.
Super prospect Bo Nickal is making his return to competition after six months off, facing the toughest opponent of his career. Nickal was relatively unimpressive in his UFC 309 decision win over Paul Craig, and will have to show continued improvement to get through former two-division ONE FC champion Reinier de Ridder this time around. RDR is now 2-0 in the UFC since joining the promotion, and would immediately be in the title picture with a win over Nickal.
Here's my de Ridder vs. Nickal prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| de Ridder | Nickal | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-2 | 17-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:38 | 4:51 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78" | 76" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 9/7/1990 | 1/14/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.28 | 2.65 |
| SS Accuracy | 57% | 63% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.69 | 1.86 |
| SS Defense | 38% | 64% |
| Take Down Avg | 6.89 | 3.61 |
| TD Acc | 46% | 50% |
| TD Def | 100% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 2.0 | 3.6 |
What makes this matchup both intriguing and potentially boring, is that in some ways it's a similar matchup for Nickal than Paul Craig. Like Craig, de Ridder is a dangerous submission artist, who poses a stylistic challenge for the three time NCAA national champion.
Nickal's solution to that problem against Paul Craig was to turn the fight into a lackluster striking match. Craig had no shot at taking Nickal down, while Nickal and his team decided to avoid the potential danger posed by grappling with Craig.
It's easy to see how they'd arrive at a similar conclusion against de Ridder. de Ridder is a black belt in both Judo and BJJ, with 14 submissions in his 19 professional wins. Both of his UFC victories have been submissions, despite being matched with a pair of BJJ black belts in Kevin Holland and Gerald Meerschaert.
In the latter matchup, de Ridder landed a takedown within five seconds and the fight never returned to the feet. That won't be so easy against Nickal, of course, but there's plenty of ways this could end up on the ground. de Ridder's judo background have him a variety of takedowns unlike what Nickal is used to seeing, particularly in the clinch if Nickal attempts to trap de Ridder along the fence.
I'm not especially confident de Ridder could find a submission from his back against the bigger and more athletic Nickal, but it's not out of the range of possibility. de Ridder could also work his way to a better position while Nickal attempts to ground and pound, and find submissions from there.
However, the more important factor is what happens before this fight hits the mat. If Nickal is able to control the action as easily as he did against Craig, he'll likely choose to keep things standing.
Unless he's made considerable strides in the six months since fighting Craig, that's somewhat unlikely. de Ridder is not a great striker by any stretch, but neither is Nickal. Nickal's focus against Craig was on staying safe, and avoiding the occasional kill shot thrown by the Scotsman.
Nickal looks fairly awkward on the feet, with solid fundamentals but mostly single shots. When he does look to land bigger strikes, he tends to lunge forward and leave himself open to counters.
On the other hand, de Ridder is a rangy southpaw who is more willing to take chances. He uses both his jab and push kicks well, with the idea that he'll then counter with heavier shots if his opponent tries to lunge inside of his long strikes.
He's also very hittable, but capable of doing damage of his own. de Ridder was clipped a few times against Meerschaert, but ultimately survived and dropped the veteran at the end of the first round.
If Nickal doesn't open up more with his striking, he's at risk of dropping rounds based on activity if nothing else, which could make this fight much closer than the betting line would imply.
de Ridder vs. Nickal Prediction
With a betting line this wide, I'm not necessarily trying to handicap who I think is more likely to win. It's pretty obviously Nickal, who has all of the physical tools to be a potential champion someday.
Instead, my focus is on identifying whether the underdog has a potential path to victory.
In this instance, de Ridder pretty clearly does. He's arguably the better pure striker, though it's hard to divorce both fighter's striking from the constant grappling threat they pose. On top of that, forcing Nickal to use his wrestling is also a path to victory for the Dutch Knight.
The odds on Friday have moved to make de Ridder a +300 underdog. However, I'm waiting as long as possible before making the bet.
The name recognition for Nickal has already pushed de Ridder's line about 50 cents since Monday, and I suspect that line movement will continue as the fight approaches. Nickal will anchor plenty of moneyline parlays this weekend, and books will adjust the price accordingly.
Billy's Pick: Reinier de Ridder +300 (But Wait For Fight Night)
