Rose Namajunas vs. Miranda Maverick Odds, Prediction
| Namajunas Odds | -258 |
| Maverick Odds | +210 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 Rounds (-520/+350) |
| Location | State Farm Arena | Atlanta, Georgia |
| Bout Time | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Atlanta odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC Atlanta with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Rose Namajunas vs. Miranda Maverick predictions, picks and odds for UFC Atlanta on Saturday, June 14.
The UFC Atlanta co-main event will tell us a lot about Rose Namajunas' chances at making a flyweight run. The former strawweight champion is 2-2 in her new division, with losses to two top-five competitors and wins over another former strawweight who has since returned, and #10 Tracy Cortez. Cortez took the fight on just a few days notice and had to cut her hair to make weight, so the fight with #11 Miranda Maverick is perhaps the best litmus test to date for "Thug Rose" at 125 lbs.
Here's my Namjunas vs. Maverick prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Namajunas | Maverick | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-7 | 17-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:41 | 13:08 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 65" | 65" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 6/29/1992 | 7/1/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.71 | 3.39 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 45% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.48 | 2.31 |
| SS Defense | 63% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.46 | 2.39 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 41% |
| TD Def | 66% | 44% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0.3 |
Miranda Maverick is quietly on quite the run, with a four-fight winning streak and a chance to crack the top-ten with a win over Namajunas.
Prior to this run she was a pedestrian 4-3 in the promotion, but her losses have aged well. They came against Erin Blanchfield, Maycee Barber, and Jasmine Jasudavicius, who now occupy the #4-#6 spots in the flyweight ranks.
Crucially, all of those women are high level wrestlers and grapplers. That's Maverick's preferred fighting style as well, and she's landed multiple takedowns in every win outside of her UFC debut.
While Maverick is short for the division at 5'3", she's extremely strong by divisional standards. She grew up working on a farm, and was a varsity wrestler in high school — for the boys' team.
Much like Barber and Blanchfield many of her takedowns come via her physicality, which likely carries over well against the smaller Namajunas. She was able to take down Dione Barbosa — herself a strong grappler — multiple times from close quarters in their fight last year.
Ironically, Maverick trained with Namajunas for that fight camp, so there will be a level of familiarity between the women when they meet this week.
The underdog is a much less talented striker than Namajunas, who has highlight reel knockouts over elite champions Joanna Jędrzejczyk and Weili Zhang in her time at strawweight. We haven't seen that power carry over to flyweight, but she lands with plenty of volume while maintaining her pristine 63% takedown defense.
Maverick is a bit awkward on the feet, lunging with her left hand from a southpaw stance while attempting to close the distance to grapple. That will leave plenty of counter striking opportunities for the slick Namajunas, who's speed and footwork are even more notable against heavier opponents.
However, Maverick has never been finished or even knocked down, so I'm not sure how much the shots from Namajunas will imapct her. Assuming this one hits the judges — which it's -475 to do — it could create some poor optics for the judges, however.
Namajunas isn't a bad grappler by any stretch, but most of her career losses have came against opponents who control her from the top. She has the submission ability to win fights from her back, but can be a bit too comfortable in bottom position. Each of Blanchfield's takedowns against Namajunas led to at least 3:30 of control time.
Namajunas vs. Maverick Prediction
I'm surprised to see Namajunas favored so heavily in this matchup.
She's five years older, undersized for the division, and hasn't shown much skill development for many years. Yes, she has the far stronger resume at this point — but most of the high points came years ago in a different division.
I fully expect Maverick to use her size and strength to land takedowns here, with the ultimate question being whether the judges reward those the increased striking volume of Namajunas.
I'm not entirely sure that they will, but given the wide odds on Maverick I'm willing to take the chance. Give me Maverick on the moneyline, with the best odds coming from ESPNBet at +205.
Billy's Pick: Miranda Maverick Money Line +205 (ESPNBet)
