Uriah Hall vs. Chris Weidman Odds, Pick, Prediction: Decision Prop Has Betting Value in UFC 261

Uriah Hall vs. Chris Weidman Odds, Pick, Prediction: Decision Prop Has Betting Value in UFC 261 article feature image
Credit:

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC fighter Chris Weidman.

  • Uriah Hall and Chris Weidman will fight at UFC 261 on Pay-Per-View Saturday night from Jacksonville, Fla.
  • This is a rematch of sorts from their 2010 scrap in Ring of Combat, which Weidman won by TKO. It's the first time they've met in UFC.
  • Sean Zerillo previews Hall vs. Weidman, including why he's betting the former champ to secure another win.

Hall vs. Weidman Odds

Hall odds
+108
Weidman odds
-135
Over/Under
2.5 (-124 / -104)
Location
Jacksonville, Fla.
Time
Approx. 10:30 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN PPV
Odds as of Friday and via PointsBet.

Two well-established UFC veterans will go head-to-head on the main card at UFC 261 when No. 9-ranked middleweight contender Uriah Hall faces former middleweight champion and No. 11-ranked contender Chris Weidman.

Hall enters Saturday’s fight riding a three-fight win streak, which includes his TKO win over Anderson Silva in October. Weidman is coming off a win over Omari Akhmedov in August, but is just 2-5 over his past seven fights and hasn’t won on a Pay-Per-View card since 2015.

Below I preview the matchup and odds for tonight’s fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.

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Tale of the Tape

Hall Weidman
Record 17-9 15-5
Avg. Fight Time 9:44 10:16
Height 6’0″ 6’2″
Weight (pounds) 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach (inches) 79″ 78″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 7/31/84 6/17/84
Sig Strikes Per Min 3.34 3.03
SS Accuracy 53% 52%
SS Absorbed Per Min 3.54 3.15
SS Defense 53% 52%
Take Down Avg 0.67 3.93
TD Acc 38% 47%
TD Def 69% 65%
Submission Avg 0.2 0.9

It’s fitting that I have this fight lined at 51% — in essence, the question here is, “Does Weidman’s chin crack?”

He has all of the tools to control this fight. Hall is another low-volume fighter on this card who rarely tries to win minutes. But Weidman is arguably the best pure wrestler (3.93 takedowns per 15 minutes, 47% accuracy) that Hall (69% takedown defense) has ever faced.

If Weidman can close the distance and put Hall on his back foot, the Jamaican becomes considerably less dangerous. And if he can put Hall on his back, Weidman is completely out of danger.

But can Weidman last for more than 10 minutes anymore? Will Hall knock him out late in the third round, when Weidman has nothing left in the tank?

Hall vs. Weidman Pick

As a native Long Islander and a fan of our champions, I see it in my nightmares: Weidman is up 2-0 on rounds, then gets dropped in the third. It’s within the range of outcomes, anyway.

There’s some value on Weidman by decision (projected +183, listed +210) and Hall by KO/TKO (projected +138, listed +225) — and if I were betting your money, I’d bet the Hall KO prop.

But I’m a homer for Weidman, and I have to take a (small) shot if I see a projected edge. He could certainly finish Hall with top pressure, too, but I don’t see any value on the moneyline.

The Pick: Weidman by decision (+210)

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