Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno UFC 263 Flyweight Championship Fight Odds, Pick & Prediction (Saturday, June 12)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured Deiveson Figueiredo.
- In a rematch of one of the best flyweight fights ever, Deiveson Figueiredo defends his UFC title against Brandon Moreno.
- The first fight back in December 2020 eneded in a majority draw because of a point deduction for Figueiredo.
- Erich Richter breaks down where he sees betting value in this matchup in his fight breakdown below.
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-175 / +145)|
|Venue||Gila River Arena|
|Time||Approx. 11:40 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Friday afternoon and via BetMGM|
The rematch that we have all been waiting for is finally upon us this Saturday night. Deiveson “God Of War” Figueiredo faces off against Brandon Moreno in arguably the biggest fight in flyweight history.
The first fight was an absolute war with neither fighter backing down. The rematch could look even better as the first fight ended in a majority draw with each fighter having their moments.
Figueiredo is a favorite at UFC 263 but not nearly as much as last time. The Brazilian champion was a -455 favorite in the first fight but has dwindled down to -225 for the rematch.
Moreno is known as the “Baby Assassin,” and he was every bit of that in his first UFC title fight.
Below, I break down where the best betting lines can be found in this fight. You can also check out Sean Zerillo’s full breakdown for every fight here.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||10:24||14:09|
|Weight (pounds)||125 lbs.||125 lbs.|
|Date of birth||12/18/87||12/7/93|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||3.38||3.41|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||3.35||3.41|
|Take Down Avg||1.57||2.01|
Moreno is typically a higher-volume fighter than Figueiredo, so that could have influenced the judge’s decisions in the first fight. The Mexican also is a fantastic grappler who landed more takedowns than Figueiredo.
Figueiredo has the power advantage, but the challenger continued to come forward in the last fight which was pretty surprising. Moreno has proven to be the only fighter since 2018 to be able to take Figueiredo’s hardest punches and submission attempts.
A big question coming into the last fight was Figueiredo’s stamina in the championship. His cardio seemed to hold up pretty well, though, with two of the judges giving Figueiredo the fifth round.
Moreno has never been finished in his career and if that toughness shines through, Figueiredo could have another issue in this fight. In their first fight, Moreno landed 132 total strikes with 118 of them landing at the head of the champion, per UFC Stats.
Figueiredo landed plenty of volume himself with 137 significant strikes, 93 of which landed to Moreno’s head. He also landed more body and leg shots.
Moreno lost the first round on every judge’s scorecards and no judge had Moreno winning the fight. If not for a point deduction in the third round, Figueiredo probably wins the fight thanks to his ability to land power shots and walk his opponent down.
Figueiredo vs. Moreno Pick
Moreno showed up last December on three weeks’ notice, as did Figueiredo, to win and showed off his durability. The fact that both fighters stayed in there and continued competing with each other was truly a spectacle to see.
Moreno looked excellent landing takedowns, but Figueiredo was never in danger on the ground and was very difficult to control. Moreno kept countering and attempting body lock takedowns.
Midway through Round 3, Figueiredo had 70 significant strikes to Moreno’s 55. Round 4 was Moreno’s best round helping catch up in the striking department, as Figueiredo ate some really heavy shots.
Earlier in the week, there was some betting value on Brandon Moreno. Figueiredo opened as a -275 favorite but has lowered to -220 nearly across the board. If you got the Moreno line early around +220 that is a good play.
However, that line has just climbed too high for me to reach for it. Instead, I will take the fight to not go the distance. Being that this is a rematch, I think that there is some familiarity there.
It appeared that Moreno built confidence as he stayed in against Figueiredo. The question here is if Moreno figured Figueiredo out or if Figueiredo got tired in Round 4. It is also worth mentioning that Figueiredo won the fifth round on two of the judge’s scorecards after clearly losing the fourth.
The last fight to go to a decision was around +180. I think both are legitimate finishers, and it was so impressive that both fighters kept coming forward. I would be surprised if they are able to do that again.
Fight not to go to decision is -120 on BetMGM. This prop was -240 last time out, but we are now getting near even money on that prop. I think Moreno is a very live dog to win inside the distance. His submission and knockout props are nearly 10:1. If you were to pick one, I’d say submission +1200 could be a good stab. Moreno has 10 of his 18 wins by submission and appeared to be the better grappler.
A packed house is expected on Saturday which could also influence fighters pulling out all of the stops to grab finishes. The last card with an audience saw seven out of 12 fights finish inside the distance. Moreover, UFC 261 had 14 of 17 fights end in a finish including a perfect 5 for 5 (100%) finish rate on the main card.
The Pick: Fight Not To Go The Distance -120