Download the App Image

UFC 275 Odds, Picks & Model Predictions: Betting Analysis & Previews for All 11 Fights

UFC 275 Odds, Picks & Model Predictions: Betting Analysis & Previews for All 11 Fights article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: General view of UFC championship belt.

  • Betting UFC 275 on Saturday night? Sean Zerillo has you covered with model projections and analysis on all 11 fights on the card, including Glover Teixeira vs. Jiri Prochazka.
  • He's attacking a handful of moneylines, a few winning method props and plenty more.
  • Get all his analysis and betting picks for UFC 275 below.

The UFC returns to Singapore with an 11-fight card for UFC 275, highlighted by a pair of title fights in the men’s Light Heavyweight and women’s Flyweight divisions.

The early prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET on UFC Fight Pass and ESPN+ before moving to ESPN at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight PPV main card will commence at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer a substantial amount of actionable value.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I’ll break down how I plan to bet every fight card, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.


Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

Click on a fight to skip ahead
11. Joselyne Edwards vs. Ramona Pascual
7 p.m. ET
10. Silvana Gomez Juarez vs. Na Liang
7:30 p.m. ET
9. Batgerel Danaa vs. Kyung Ho Kang
8 p.m. ET
8. Brendan Allen vs. Jacob Malkoun
8:30 p.m. ET
7. Steve Garcia vs. Maheshate
9 p.m. ET
6. Seung Woo Choi vs. Josh Culibao
9:30 p.m. ET
5. Jack Della Maddalena vs. Ramazan Emeev
10 p.m. ET
4. Andre Fialho vs. Jack Matthews
10:30 p.m. ET
3. Weili Zhang vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk
11 p.m. ET
2. Valentina Shevchenko vs. Talia Santos
11:30 p.m. ET
1. Jiri Prochazka vs. Glover Teixeira
12:15 a.m. ET

UFC 275 Projected Odds

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday’s 12 bouts. In the next section, you’ll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

Odds as of Saturday morning and via BetMGM.

UFC 275 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside of the distance.

[Click to return to table of contents]

UFC 275 Odds

Early Preliminary Card

  • 7 p.m. ET
  • ESPN+

Joselyne Edwards vs. Ramona Pascual

Women’s Featherweight Bout Odds
Joselyne Edwards Odds -175
Ramona Pascual Odds +145
Over/under rounds 2.5 (-225 / +160)

Crowdsourced Projections: Joselyne Edwards (56.3%)

Pascual appeared extremely durable in her promotional debut against Josiane Nunes. As a former Lightweight, she may prove the larger fighter in the cage against Joselyne Edwards, a natural Bantamweight who is moving up to 145 for this bout.

Edwards should be the superior striker, while Pascual will look to land takedowns (3-of-10 against Nunes, 3:41 of control time) against Edwards, who tends to accept a bottom position and work off her back.

Since Friday’s weigh-ins, Pascual’s moneyline has climbed from +125 (44.4% implied) to +145 (40.8%) implied, and she now presents value as a moneyline underdog compared to my projection (+129).

Still, I would prefer to bet the fight goes the distance prop (projected -210, listed -175 at DraftKings) at a more significant edge.

Moreover, I would sprinkle Pascual to win by decision (projected +252, listed +300 at BetMGM) in what amounts to a close and competitive scrap, with relatively low finishing potential on either side.

Bets

  • Fight goes to Decision (-175, 0.5u) at DraftKings
  • Ramona Pascual wins by Decision (+300, 0.25u) at BetMGM

[Click to return to table of contents]

Silvana Gomez Juarez vs. Na Liang

Women’s Strawweight Bout Odds
Silvana Gomez Juarez Odds -130
Na Liang Odds +105
Over/under rounds TBA

Crowdsourced Projections: Silvana Gomez Juarez (55%)

Liang is an extremely aggressive fighter, explaining why the total is 1.5 rounds for a women’s strawweight bout. Historically, the 115-pound division has seen 67% of all bouts go the distance.

Conversely, Liang has 24 professional fights, and 23 bouts ended in the first or second round. “Dragon Girl” is 0-1 on the scorecards and 2-0 by disqualification, primarily against low-level competition.

Liang shoots takedowns at a high clip and tends to set a pace she cannot keep. But she may have a significant grappling advantage against Juarez, who has lost both of her UFC contests via armbar.

If Liang can get this fight to the mat, it’s possible that she can submit Juarez in a relatively quick fashion.

Juarez is the superior striker, and if she can keep the fight standing, I expect her to be able to pick apart her opponent and potentially score an attritional stoppage in the second or third round.

While I don’t perceive value on either side of the moneyline, I project value on the fight to go to a decision (projected +174, listed +220 at BetMGM).

And although I project value on Juarez by decision (projected +264 listed +310 at BetMGM), I prefer the value on the Over 1.5 rounds (-125 at DraftKings) and the fight to go to a decision (projected +173, listed +220 at BetMGM).

Essentially, this fight has a 42% difference between the average finish rate at strawweight (33%) and the implied odds (-300, or 75%).

Bets

  • Over 1.5 Rounds (-125, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings
  • Fight goes to Decision (+220, 0.25u) at BetMGM

[Click to return to table of contents]

Preliminary Card

  • 8 p.m. ET
  • ESPN 2

Batgerel Danaa vs. Kyung Ho Kang

Bantamweight Bout Odds
Batgerel Danaa Odds -130
Kyung Ho Kang Odds +105
Over/under rounds TBA

Crowdsourced Projections: Batgerel Danaa (52.5%)

Danaa is returning to the octagon after sustaining a knockout loss on March 26, and I don’t love a quick turnaround for any fighter coming off of a violent loss.

The Mongolian fighter carries a ton of power but loses effectiveness after the first round. Danaa may have difficulty hurting Kyung Ho Kang, whose only TKO loss came via soccer kicks in his third-career fight in 2008.

If “Mr. Perfect” can weather the early storm from Danaa, he should begin to take over the fight in the final two frames. While he doesn’t carry significant power, Kang is the taller and longer fighter (two inches of height, three inches of reach), the more technical striker, and possesses all the grappling upside.

Since his debut loss to Alateng Heili, Danaa hasn’t faced a single takedown attempt. Kang is at his best when fighting behind his range weapons and changing levels occasionally (2.23 takedowns per 15 minutes, 59% accuracy).

I expect Danaa to win the first round at a decent clip, but the first round should be his best round before Kang starts to take over this fight. While you could wait for a live entry on Kang after Round 1, I’m willing to bet him at +115 or better pre-fight (projected +110).

Kang by decision (projected +201, listed +225 at DraftKings) could offer the most value from a prop perspective. Still, I will stick with Kang’s moneyline and look to add to that position live.

Bets

  • Kyung-ho Kang (+115) at DraftKings
  • Live bet Kyung Ho Kang after Round 1

[Click to return to table of contents]

Brendan Allen vs. Jacob Malkoun

Middleweight Bout Odds
Brendan Allen Odds -300
Jacob Malkoun Odds +240
Over/under rounds 1.5 (-165 / +125)

Crowdsourced Projections: Brendan Allen (72.6%)

Malkoun doesn’t have the most fan-friendly fighting style. After getting knocked out immediately by Phil Hawes in his UFC debut, Malkoun has responded with a pair of upset wins against Abdul Razak Alhassan and AJ Dobson by racking up takedowns and control time.

In 30 minutes of octagon time against those two opponents, Malkoun secured 14 takedowns on 40 attempts (35%) and spent 20:58 (70% of the fights) in control positions.

The question is whether Malkoun can take down and hold down Allen, a well-rounded Middleweight who trains with a top camp at Sanford MMA.

Allen has some durability concerns, but Malkoun isn’t the type of fighter to threaten a knockout. And even if Malkoun can take him down, Allen is a slick grappler who can reverse positions or scramble back to his feet.

That said, I have consistently underrated Malkoun’s top pressure. He indeed prioritizes position over submission and does just enough damage from the top to secure rounds in his favor.

On the feet, he’s very slow and likely to get finished unless he can slow the fight down, create extensive grappling situations, and put Allen flat on his back. Malkoun is a high-effort fighter with good stamina. He knows his limitations and will relentlessly pursue takedowns to maximize his potential to win.

While I don’t value either side of the moneyline or the totals, I see a considerable disagreement in my assessment of Malkoun’s win condition.

I projected a decision as 60% of Malkoun’s win probability (40% finish) and set the line at +508. And frankly, I could have made that closer to 70-75%.

The betting of his win condition (60-65% by finish).

Given that discrepancy, I bet Malkoun to win by decision, and I would play it down to +650.

Bets

  • Jacob Malkoun wins by Decision (+900, 0.25u) at Bet365

[Click to return to table of contents]

Steve Garcia vs. Maheshate

Lightweight Bout Odds
Steve Garcia Odds -185
Maheshate Odds +150
Over/under rounds 1.5 (-140 / +100)

Crowdsourced Projections: Steve Garcia (62.5%)

Maheshate earned a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series last November as a significant underdog (closed between +400 and +575 depending upon the book), and at 22-years-old is one of the youngest fighters on the roster.

However, that was his first win against an opponent with a winning record, and he still has a lot to prove at this level. While Maheshate might have some grappling deficiencies, the Chinese fighter showed excellent heart and figures to improve with age.

Garcia will look to mix takedowns wherever possible and win the grappling exchanges. I doubt he wants to get involved in a brawl with Maheshate, particularly after getting wobbled by Charlie Ontiveros in his last fight.

I don’t see either man as a particularly potent finisher, yet this bout is expected to finish at a significant clip. An average lightweight bout goes to decision 48% of the time, and the market indicates something closer to a 35% probability for this matchup.

While I don’t project value on either side of the moneyline, I see this bout reaching a decision 44% of the time — far closer to the divisional average. I bet the over 2.5 Rounds (+140 at DraftKings) and the fight to go to a decision (+180 at Caesars).

Moreover, you could bet Maheshate to win by decision (projected +433, listed +500 at BetMGM). Still, I prefer the totals.

Bets

  • Over 2.5 Rounds (+140, 0.5u) at DraftKings
  • Fight goes to Decision (+180, 0.25u) at Caesars

[Click to return to table of contents]

Seungwoo Choi vs. Josh Culibao

Featherweight Bout Odds
Seungwoo Choi Odds -225
Josh Culibao Odds +180
Over/under rounds 2.5 (-140 / +100)

Crowdsourced Projections: Seungwoo Choi (70.3%)

While I rate Choi as the superior fighter, this should be a close and competitive striking matchup where the margins in each round are very narrow.

Choi is at his best when his opponents oblige him in a striking matchup, where he makes the most out of his reach. He’s lost fights when opponents can grapple him, but Culibao is not up for the task. That said, Culibao carries reliable power and can undoubtedly swing the fight in his favor with a couple of big moments.

Ultimately, I expect Choi to secure a close three-round decision. Still, even though I project slight value on his moneyline now (projected -236, listed -225), I would wait for Choi’s moneyline to drop closer to -200 before jumping in.

Moreover, I don’t see any value on the totals or any winning method props for this fight, so it’s a pass unless Choi’s moneyline odds continue to drop.

Bets

  • Pass

[Click to return to table of contents]

Main Card

  • 10 p.m. ET
  • ESPN PPV

Jack Della Maddalena vs. Ramazan Emeev

Welterweight Bout Odds
Jack Della Maddalena Odds -165
Ramazan Emeev Odds +135
Over/under rounds 2.5 (-225 / +160)

Crowdsourced Projections: Jack Della Maddalena (61.6%)

This is exactly the type of striker vs. grappler matchup that could swing on the scorecards depending on who is judging the fight.

Emeev is a good wrestler who excels at getting his opponents down to the mat (2.29 takedowns per 15 minutes, 29% accuracy). However, he doesn’t have tremendous top pressure and often needs to grind on his opponents to win rounds.

Moreover, Emeev doesn’t inflict much damage once he gets those takedowns, which has led to a pair of split decisions in his two most recent fights, as judges have prioritized damage over control time (which is the correct application of the scoring criteria).

Maddalena (“JDM”) is a high-volume striker who has shown impressive boxing in his relatively limited MMA career. While he showed capable grappling chops in his contender series win over Ange Loosa, JDM’s grappling is mostly untested at the highest level of MMA; Emeev represents a significant step up in competition relative to his prior opponents.

Even if Emeev can get JDM down to the mat, the Aussie can still swing the rounds back in his favor in short bursts of action on the feet by inflicting damage at high volume. JDM sets up his strikes well and knows when to take power off or add more onto his punches to change the tempo of the exchanges.

OH MY, OH MY 😳

🇦🇺 Jack Della Maddalena came with a PURPOSE! #UFC270 pic.twitter.com/ghZwK85WF1

— UFC (@ufc) January 23, 2022

Both fighters offer excellent cardio, and this could be a back-and-forth three-round affair where Emeev scores more takedowns and control time while JDM lands more strikes in every round; scorecards could be all over the place.

Moreover, while JDM has a high number of finishes on his record, he’s bound to fight to more decisions at the UFC level since his power is based more upon attritional damage than sitting down on individual punches.

I don’t project value on either side of the moneyline and only show slight value on JDM’s decision prop (projected +170, listed +175).

That said, I project this fight to go to a decision 66% of the time (-192 implied), and I played the distance prop at -164 at FanDuel. I would bet that up to -175 in a fight with split decision written all over it.

Bets

  • Fight goes to Decision (-162, 0.5u) at FanDuel

[Click to return to table of contents]

Andre Fialho vs. Jack Matthews

Welterweight Bout Odds
Andre Fialho Odds -150
Jack Matthews Odds +125
Over/under rounds 2.5 (+100 / -140)

Crowdsourced Projections: Andre Fialho (52.5%)

Matthews appears to be a popular underdog selection this week, and I certainly understand the urgency to bet against Andre Fialho. The latter may be overvalued on the heels of consecutive knockout wins over Miguel Baeza and Cameron VanCamp.

ANDRE FIALHO (-400) PUT HIM TO SLEEP 😴

pic.twitter.com/S8cUp48Rw6

— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) May 7, 2022

Fialho is a one-dimensional boxer who headhunts. He rarely throws body punches or leg kicks. Moreover, his grappling remains a significant question mark.

Still, Fialho has likely improved his game — relative to his earlier career — after training both at American Kickboxing Academy and Sanford MMA. I’m not sure this is the correct spot to fade him.

Aside from his win over Li Jingliang, Matthews’ UFC wins have all come against fighters who are no longer with the promotion. And he’s unlikely to make significant improvements while training out of a small local gym in Australia.

In theory, Matthews has the wrestling and grappling upside in this matchup (1.93 takedowns per 15 minutes, 41% accuracy). Still, if he can’t get the fight to the mat, Fialho is the far more powerful striker and will almost certainly inflict more damage than his opponent.

That said, Matthews is the more diverse striker who is less likely to brawl (61% striking defense, vs. 48% for Fialho) – which is the type of fight that Fialho desires.

Ultimately, I don’t project value on either side of the matchup from a moneyline or prop perspective, and the total also aligns with my projection.

As a result, I will pass on betting on this fight and use it to evaluate whether Fialho’s grappling has leveled up. 

Bets

  • Pass

[Click to return to table of contents]

Weili Zhang vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk

Women’s Strawweight Bout Odds
Weili Zhang Odds -175
Joanna Jedrzejczyk Odds +145
Over/under rounds 2.5 (-300 / +220)

Crowdsourced Projections: Weili Zhang (58%)

This Strawweight title eliminator is a rematch of 2020’s Fight of the Year from UFC 248. It’s one of the best MMA fights of all time, and if you haven’t had a chance to watch the first matchup, do yourself a favor:

Zhang won the fight via split decision. Fan and media scorecards were about as close as it gets.

But that was a five-round bout, and had it ended after three rounds, Joanna would have won the split. Ironically, most analysts consider a three-round fight more beneficial to Zhang. Still, the margins were about as close as it gets in nearly every round, and the level of variance only increases in a three-round fight as opposed to a five-round fight.

In hindsight, Zhang likely won the bout with power optics and damage. Joanna had a large hematoma by the time the fight ended. But the swelling got worse as the fight went on, which likely secured the final two rounds for Zhang on two of the three scorecards.

Joanna’s biggest mistake was obliging Zhang’s desire to brawl. Jedrzejczyk is the superior technician and is much more responsible defensively (64% to 52% striking defense). Moreover, she’s faster, taller, and longer but at a significant power disadvantage on individual strikes.

Joanna landed more strikes in three of the five rounds (tied in the other two), but the power differential was so significant that the fight felt closer to 49-46 Zhang than 48-47 Joanna.

If Joanna fights a more calculated game plan, slows the tempo, and utilizes her footwork and movement in a big cage, she could turn the tide in her favor.

The Polish fighter has taken a significant layoff since the first matchup to let her body heal, while Zhang has fought and trained for two Main Events against Rose Namajunas. Moreover, Zhang has likely improved her wrestling game while training with Henry Cejudo and the Fight Ready team.

That said, Joanna has been training almost nonstop at American Top Team — who might prepare superior game plans to any other camp. And both her takedown defense (81%) and getup game has always been an asset.

If this plays out as a 15-minute striking battle, we’re essentially flipping a coin for three rounds, and I would want to back whichever fighter has a plus sign next to their name. And in particular, I’ll take technique over power in a shorter fight.

Joanna is the superior striker (+3% accuracy, +12% defense, +3.28 to +1.34 strike differential), and I favor her to land more volume in each round. The question is whether that volume can outweigh Zhang’s power.

I projected Joanna around 42% in this matchup, and I would bet her moneyline down to +140.

I expect another close decision to result and project the bout to go the distance 72% of the time (-258 implied). On top of the underdog moneyline, I bet the distance prop at -200 at WynnBET. You can play that prop up to -233.

Bets

  • Joanna Jędrzejczyk (+145, 0.5u) at BetMGM
  • Fight goes to Decision (-200, 0.5u) at WynnBET


[Click to return to table of contents]

Valentina Shevchenko vs. Talia Santos

Women’s Flyweight Bout Odds
Valentina Shevchenko Odds -600
Talia Santos Odds +425
Over/under rounds 3.5 (-165 / +120)

Crowdsourced Projections: Valentina Shevchenko (82.3%)

For additional information on Saturday’s Flyweight title bout, check out the fight preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

Aside from her losses to Amanda Nunes, Shevchenko has rarely lost rounds in the UFC. When Jennifer Maia took her down and won the second round of their matchup at UFC 255, it was a relatively shocking moment.

Valentina’s live odds dropped from a pre-fight close of -1300 to -800 after Round 2, which looked like significant value the rest of the way.

The “Bullet” seems like a fighter with very few weaknesses – aside from a size discrepancy against Nunes. Still, many believe you can grapple and grind on her and win minutes with control time.

Santos is a powerful grappler (2.44 takedowns per 15 minutes, 86% accuracy) with strong top pressure. Still, this is her first test in a five-round fight, and her UFC wins haven’t aged particularly well. Of her four wins, only Molly McCann (2-1) has a winning record since their encounter. The other three opponents have gone 1-4 (with a win over Priscila Cachoeira), and two have since retired.

Perhaps Santos can steal an early round with a takedown. Maybe she can do it twice. Still, I don’t see her sustaining control over such an excellent scrambler for three rounds of this fight, particularly when she hasn’t been tested in the championship rounds.

The striking should be pretty one-sided. While Santos carries power, Shevchenko is the superior technician, and she rarely puts herself in bad spots to get clipped (64% striking defense).

I can see the argument for where Santos can win minutes in this fight. Still, I don’t think it’s a sustainable strategy for anything more than moderate success.

The striking advantage for Shevchenko is far more comprehensive than any advantages Santos may have on the mat – if any. And to pick apart Shevchenko’s resume for a momentary lapse against Maia – particularly against a relatively unproven fighter in Santos – might be a bit of a reach.

In this matchup, I don’t project value on either side of the moneyline or total. I see little value on the Santos decision prop (projected +1028, listed as high as +1200). However, that number has generally come down to appropriate levels.

As a result, I’ll wait to see if Valentina drops one of the first two rounds in this fight – and try to jump in on a Live moneyline after her price potentially halves.

Bets

  • Live bet Valentina Shevchenko after Round 1 and/or Round 2

[Click to return to table of contents]

Jiri Prochazka vs. Glover Teixeira

Light Heavyweight Bout Odds
Jiri Prochazka Odds -200
Glover Teixeira Odds +165
Over/under rounds 1.5 (-140 / +100)

Crowdsourced Projections: Jiri Prochazka (60.2%)

For additional information on Saturday’s Main Event, including a statistical breakdown, check out my full fight preview.

In short, I projected Glover Teixeira as nearly a 40% underdog in this fight (+151 implied), and I perceive him as the value side for moneyline wagering.

prefer Glover’s odds to win inside the distance (listed +250, projected +195) or by submission (listed +380, projected +286). I would rather play his violence props at considerably better odds than his moneyline.

Moreover, I projected this fight to end inside the distance 88% of the time (-734 implied), and I show substantial value on the unders in this matchup.

I layered my approach, attacking the under 2.5 rounds (-170), Under 3.5 (-280), and Under 4.5 (-400) in separate wagers. And I would place those bets up to-200, -300, and -450, respectively.

Bets

  • Under 2.5 Rounds (-170 at Caesars, to win 0.75u)
  • Under 3.5 Rounds (-280 at DraftKings, to win 0.5u)
  • Under 4.5 Rounds (-400 at DraftKings, to win 0.25u)
  • Glover Teixeira wins Inside the Distance (+250 at DraftKings, 0.25u)
  • Glover Teixeira wins by Submission (+380 at FanDuel, 0.25u)

Zerillo’s UFC 275 Bets

Distance or Decision Props and Overs

  • Edwards/Pascual, Fight goes to Decision (-175, 0.5u) at DraftKings
  • Ramona Pascual wins by Decision (+300, 0.25u) at BetMGM
  • Juarez/Liang, Over 1.5 Rounds (-125, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings
  • Juarez/Liang, Fight goes to Decision (+220, 0.25u) at BetMGM
  • Jacob Malkoun wins by Decision (+900, 0.25u) at Bet365
  • Garcia/Maheshate, Over 2.5 Rounds (+140, 0.5u) at DraftKings
  • Garcia/Maheshate Fight goes to Decision (+180, 0.25u) at Caesars
  • Emeev/Maddalena, Fight goes to Decision (-164, 0.5u) at FanDuel
  • Jedrzejczyk/Zhang, Fight goes to Decision (-200, 0.5u) at WynnBET

Inside the Distance Props and Unders

  • Teixeira/Prochazka, Under 2.5 Rounds (-170 at Caesars, to win 0.75u)
  • Teixeira/Prochazka, Under 3.5 Rounds (-280 at DraftKings, to win 0.5u)
  • Teixeira/Prochazka, Under 4.5 Rounds (-400 at DraftKings, to win 0.25u)
  • Glover Teixeira wins Inside the Distance (+250 at DraftKings, 0.25u)
  • Glover Teixeira wins by Submission (+380 at FanDuel, 0.25u)

Moneylines

  • Kyung-ho Kang (+115) at DraftKings
  • Joanna Jedrzejczyk (+145, 0.5u) at MGM

Live Betting Notes

  • Live bet Kyung-ho Kang after Round 1
  • Live bet Valentina Shevchenko after Round 1 and/or Round 2

Don’t forget to follow my picks in the Action Network App.

[Click to return to table of contents]

How would you rate this article?