UFC 277 PrizePicks Props: Targets Include Ex-champ Moreno, DWCS Winner Potieria (Saturday, July 30)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC light heavyweight Ihor Potieria reacts after his victory over Lukasz Sudolski in a light heavyweight fight during Dana White’s Contender Series season five week five at UFC APEX on September 28, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
The UFC is back on pay-per-view on Saturday (6 p.m. ET), with a 13-fight card featuring two title fights. There’s plenty of opportunity to get some action in on the Dallas fight card, even if you don’t live in a legal betting state.
That’s where PrizePicks comes in. They allow you to bet on individual fighters’ statistics, similar to player props in other sports. Below, I’ll go over my favorite parlay, with some additional options to increase the return if we get them all correct.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
UFC 277 PrizePicks Parlay
Brandon Moreno Significant Strikes – Under 103.5
I’ve started to build a projection model for UFC fighters’ PrizePicks stat lines, and Brandon Moreno’s projection jumped out at me. He’s showing up as the biggest value (outside of debuting fighters or those whose numbers are based strictly on Dana White’s Contender Series bouts) on the slate with his striking totals.
This one makes sense intuitively; Moreno has cleared this number only twice in his career, both of which were five-round decisions against Deiveson Figueiredo. Figueiredo has a 52% significant strike defense rate, while Moreno’s opponent this time – Kai Kara-France – is all the way up at 65%.
Even when we adjust for Figueiredo’s stiffer levels of competition, that means Moreno still likely needs all – or nearly all – 25 minutes to hit this mark on Saturday. That’s certainly not a given, as it’s currently +110 to end early (“doesn’t go to decision”) on DraftKings.
Additionally, Kara-France’s huge power is likely to lead to a more tentative approach from his opponent. Moreno mixed in seven takedowns in his 13 rounds against Figueiredo, with his lone win from that trilogy coming via submission.
Kara-France certainly represents an easier matchup in the grappling department. I wouldn’t be surprised if Moreno leans more heavily on his wrestling this time around.
This is an example of a prop with many ways to go under – but a specific situation is required for the over. I’ll take the side with more ways to hit.
Ihor Potieria Fight Time – Under 10 Minutes
Ihor Potieria won his DWCS bout in just 3:41 of fight time to punch his ticket to the UFC. It was the fifth straight finish for the Ukrainian light heavyweight. Two of those bouts don’t have times listed on Tapology, but the ones that do all have him victorious in 10 minutes or quicker.
He opened his DWCS fight extremely aggressively, nearly putting away his opponent – the previously unbeaten Lukasz Sudolski – in the opening seconds. However, he appeared to be fading quickly before a fortunate (for him) groin strike gave him time to catch his breath.
He came out hard following the stoppage in action, and he was able to finish his opponent shortly thereafter.
Based on that fight, I have major questions about his cardio. He’s now fighting Nicolae Negumereanu, a talented grappler who himself has knockout power. I expect Potieria to be aggressive from the opening bell, but fade quickly if Negumereanu weathers the storm.
Either way, that should lead to an early stoppage this time. Fortunately for this prop, we don’t need to decide who gets it. For what it’s worth, my time projections (based strictly on the betting lines for various finishes) have this one at just under nine minutes as well.
- Matthew Semelsberger Over 0.5 Takedowns: Semelsberger has huge power on the feet. However, he might find that the easiest path to a victory against Alex Morono is on the canvas. Semelsberger averages roughly a takedown per 15 minutes, but he has a perfect 100% takedown accuracy in his career. Barring a quick knockout, he’s likely to mix in one or two in this fight
- Orion Cosce Under 44.5 Significant Strikes: Cosce is fighting Mike Mathetha, better known as Blood Diamond. Mathetha is a decorated striker, with clear holes in his ground game. The odds of Cosce lasting long enough on the feet to even attempt 44.5 significant strikes, much less landing them, are slim. This one will either be a Cosce victory contested mainly on the ground, or a violent knockout for Blood Diamond. Neither scenario includes much striking volume from Cosce.